Colts' Playoff Odds Will Plummet with Loss vs. Jaguars

The Jaguars currently lead the AFC South, which is a big reason why this matchup is so important. Whoever wins takes control of the division and will have less pressure on their shoulders in Week 17 when the two face off again at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Colts and Jaguars have the same divisional record (2-1), which is one of the key tiebreakers that determines the division champion in the event of a tied overall record. A win would give the Colts the same divisional record as the Texans (3-1), giving them control over their own destiny since they'll play the Texans and Jags again.

The Colts have the toughest remaining schedule in the league when you look at opponent win percentage. With only two home games left, the Colts need to steal a road win to make things more comfortable.

Colts' Postseason Odds With a Win

Should the Colts win on Sunday, their playoff odds rise meteorically to 78%, which is close to where they were a couple of weeks ago. At 9-4, the Colts would guarantee a winning record. It's looking like 11 wins would win the AFC South, so grabbing one against a divisional opponent is simply incredibly important.

Similar to the Colts, the Texans have a lot riding on their game against the Chiefs this weekend. A win gives Houston a 90% chance to make the playoffs, but a loss gives them a 53% chance.

Houston's win against the Colts last weekend heavily improved their odds because they got the job done on the road. The Colts have the chance to do the same thing, just against Jacksonville.

When you look at the wild card race, the Colts are tied with the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills with an 8-4 record. The 7-5 Texans are one game away from moving in, which is why they have so much on the line against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs themselves have a lot to play for. A loss would put them at 6-7 and on the brink of missing the postseason for the first time since 2014, which is also the last time the Colts won their division.

To be honest, every game matters. The Colts can't afford too many more losses, and a three-game losing streak would kill any momentum the Colts may have built in the first 10 weeks.