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Dec 22, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) yells from behind the line of scrimmage during a game against the San Francisco 49ers at Lucas Oil Stadium. Grace Hollars-USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

Colts’ Playoff Picture Darkens, Door Still Open

Originally posted on Indianapolis Colts on SI
By Sean Ackerman | Last updated Dec 24, 2025 10:19 AM ET

The Indianapolis Colts are one loss away from finalizing a monumental collapse. From the top seed in the conference to outside the playoff picture, the Colts are on track to become the first team in NFL history to miss the postseason after starting 8-2.

The Colts aren't mathematically dead just yet, but their odds got much slimmer after a disgusting loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

Let's take a look at the remaining playoff scenarios for Indianapolis.

Colts' Final Playoff Hopes Lie Out of Their Control

The Colts haven't done themselves any favors over the past month and a half, losing all five games since their Week 11 bye. At the same time, almost every result that could have helped the Colts over that span has also not gone their way.

First of all, the Colts have to win out. They'll host the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 and travel south to play the Houston Texans in Week 18. Both teams are hot heading into January, with the Jaguars winning six straight and the Texans winning seven straight.

Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The AFC South is officially out of the question after the Jaguars upset the Denver Broncos, meaning it's been 11 years since the Colts won a division title.

For the Colts to clinch the final wild card spot, they'll need more than just the Texans to lose out.

The Texans will face the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17, a game that could easily swing either way. The Colts' loss against the 49ers allowed the Chargers to clinch a playoff spot. Now, the Colts need Philip Rivers' old team to do them a favor in return.

Colts' Insane Playoff Scenario

If the Colts beat the Texans in Week 18 and the two teams are tied at 10-7, it'll come down to a series of tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head results, which would be tied. The next would be the best win percentage in the division, which would also be tied at 4-2.

The third applicable tiebreaker would be win percentage in common games. This means that out of all of the opponents that BOTH teams had played, the better record would win. Crazy enough, if the Texans lose out and Colts win out, they would both hold a 7-5 record in common games.

This means that it would go to the fourth tiebreaker, which is strength of victory. Basically, the final records of each team's opponents come into play. Here's a chart that makes it simple.

If the #Colts lose to San Francisco but then win out and catch the #Texans at 10-7, the AFC # 7 seed will come down to the beloved strength of victory tiebreaker.

Here is a color-coded guide of what each team would need to win it. (It's very close!) pic.twitter.com/X3gH0HpNkd
— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) December 22, 2025

The teams highlighted in blue are the ones that Colts fans need to root for. If the Texans beat the Chargers on Saturday, then all of this is irrelevant, and the Colts would be eliminated from playoff contention.

The Broncos/Chiefs game carries the most importance. The Colts beat the Broncos but lost to the Chiefs; meanwhile, the Texans lost to the Broncos but beat the Chiefs. Whoever wins that game will have a much stronger strength of victory.

As it stands, the Colts' playoff chances are minuscule. Their five-game losing streak has done them zero favors, and it looks like they'll be sitting on the couch in January for the fifth year in a row.

If by some miracle all of these things happen, then it sure would be fun to watch Philip Rivers play postseason football once again.

This article first appeared on Indianapolis Colts on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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