Colts' QBs to Blame for Projected Clunker of a Season

On paper, the Indianapolis Colts' roster looks to be in pretty good shape.

Offensively, they've got a deep group of skill position players, especially with additions in the draft of tight end Tyler Warren and running back DJ Giddens. The offensive line took a couple of hits in free agency, but the holes will be filled by players the Colts drafted last year with that purpose in mind.

On the defensive side of the ball, new coordinator Lou Anarumo is expected to put his "mad scientist" touch on the group and has newcomers Charvarius Ward, Camryn Bynum, and JT Tuimoloau at his disposal.

What might go wrong? The quarterback position could be the cause of the team not getting as far as they'd like to go, according to NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund.

Following the NFL's recent schedule release, Frelund projected the win totals for each team in the AFC, and her simulations produced just 7.6 wins for the Colts, which puts them 12th in the AFC, well out of the playoff picture. Only the Las Vegas Raiders (7.4), New York Jets (6.2), Tennessee Titans (5.8), and Cleveland Browns (5.6) are slated to finish worse.

"Given the questions the Colts are facing at quarterback, where veteran addition Daniel Jones will be vying to unseat former first-round pick Anthony Richardson, they could be in for a rocky start, having to host the Broncos' defense in Week 2, then traveling to face the Rams' defense in Week 4," Frelund wrote. "Indianapolis' hardest back-to-backs come later in the year: Weeks 12 (at Kansas City) and 13 (vs. Houston), then Weeks 15 (at Seattle) and 16 (vs. San Francisco on Monday Night Football)."

For what it's worth, the Colts' 7.6 wins are just slightly above their 7.5 wins line (-110) projected by Caesars Sportsbook & Casino.

The quarterback position is obviously the most significant factor teams consider when projecting where they can go as a team. Long are the days since defensive-dominant teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers dragged middling quarterbacks to the Super Bowl. Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes (three), Matthew Stafford, and Tom Brady (two) are the last four quarterbacks to win a Super Bowl in the last seven years, if that tells you anything.

In the Colts' quarterback competition between Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones, the first goal has to be finding an option that gives the Colts a consistent offense capable of sustaining drives, but also capitalizing on the explosive talent among the skill position players. Only then can the Colts worry about what their record looks like, followed by making the playoffs, being competitive in the playoffs, and then ultimately winning the Super Bowl.

While the Super Bowl should at least be a pipe dream for each team to strive for every year, the Colts have gotta start with baby steps.

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