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Colts' Updated Playoff Picture After Pitiful Loss vs. Texans
Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen walks off the field Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025, after the Indianapolis Colts lost to the Houston Texans 20-16 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts were soaking in their bye week as the heavy favorite to win the AFC South. Two weeks later, the Houston Texans delivered a gut punch to the Colts' playoff hopes after defeating Indy at Lucas Oil Stadium, handing the Colts their second consecutive loss.

All of a sudden, the Colts are out of the AFC South's driver's seat. Once the Jacksonville Jaguars finalized their victory over the Tennessee Titans, the Jags leapfrogged the Colts in divisional standings.

Now sitting at 8-4 on the year, the Colts are obviously still in contention for their first postseason berth since 2020. The road to clinching just got a lot tougher, though.

AFC South Updated Standings

  1. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
  2. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
  3. Houston Texans (7-5)
  4. Tennessee Titans (1-11)

The Jaguars are riding a three-game winning streak that includes victories over the Los Angeles Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and Tennessee Titans. Those are three teams the Colts have already beat, so it's no surprise the Jags were able to do the same.

The Texans have now won four in a row, and they're looking dangerous. The Colts will end their regular season in Houston at NRG Stadium, and that game may end up determining the division winner.

Jacksonville hosts the Colts next Sunday, and that game will practically be a must-win if the Colts want to win the division and secure at least one game of home-field advantage. The Colts haven't played a home playoff game since January 2015.

AFC Wild Card Standings

  1. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
  2. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
  3. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
  4. Houston Texans (7-5)
  5. Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (6-6)

Although the loss is a tough one to swallow, the Colts sit atop the AFC wild-card standings. The Chargers and Bills are still in action, so the results of those games could have an effect on the standings.

The Colts have a 6-3 conference record, which is one of the major tiebreakers that could determine playoff seeding. The Chargers are 6-2 in the conference, but the Colts have a head-to-head tiebreaker over them. The Bills are 4-3 in the conference, and the Colts will not play them.

The Texans are scary, as they have a 6-2 conference record with five games left on the schedule, including one against the 2-9 Las Vegas Raiders.

Christine Tannous/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The loss certainly had an impact on the Colts' playoff picture, but Indy still controls its own destiny. If they can win all three divisional games left on their schedule, they'll be clear favorites to take home the division title.

Sandwiched between their three remaining divisional games are matchups against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. If the Colts want to really make a push for the number one seed, they'll have to win at least one of those games against NFC West foes.

The best-case scenario for Indianapolis is that they finish 13-4. The worst is 8-9. One would imagine that, after the start the Colts had, 8-9 is an impossible record to obtain. But in the NFL, it's any given Sunday, specifically for 17 Sundays.

This article first appeared on Indianapolis Colts on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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