Colts vs. Raiders Best Bets: Tail Shrader, Trust Taylor

The matchup favors balance, but one angle stands out above the rest.

Colts quarterback Daniel Jones Over 231.5 passing yards (-111) is my favorite play of this contest. This soft Raiders secondary sets up perfectly for Jones to hit the over.

Jones averages 269.5 passing yards with the Colts and threw for 262 last week against one of the league’s best defensive fronts. Facing a Raiders secondary ranked 28th in pass coverage, this is one of my favorite bets on Sunday’s slate.

He’s also cleared his line of 231.5 passing yards in three of his last four games. Another factor that makes this number even more appealing is the Raiders’ zone and single-high coverage tendencies.

Las Vegas runs zone coverage at the highest rate in the league. That’s a problem against Jones, who has been the NFL’s fifth-most efficient quarterback versus zone coverage this season.

Even more, Jones is Pro Football Focus’s highest-graded passer against single-high looks. With the Raiders using single-high at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL, the over feels like the sharp play.

Another Colts prop I’m keying in on is Colts running back Jonathan Taylor Anytime TD (-200). The odds aren’t great, but that’s because Taylor has scored 10 touchdowns in his last 10 outings and found the end zone in all three of his career matchups with Vegas.

He also comes in hungry after a frustrating Week 4 ending. Paired with a Raiders defense ranked 23rd against the run, Taylor is primed for paydirt.

On the same side of the ball, I like Colts kicker Spencer Shrader Over 1.5 field goals (-137) for the second straight week. Right now, Shrader is dialed, and the play is to keep backing him.

Shrader has cashed this line in 100% of his last five games and is currently one of the most accurate kickers in the league. With the Colts ranking 25th in red-zone efficiency, he should see plenty of opportunities.

With Indy’s props covered, it’s time to shift to how the Raiders will attack this Colts defense. After the secondary got absolutely torched last week, Vegas will almost certainly look to replicate the Rams’ success. That’s why we're targeting Raiders passing props.

Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers Over 4.5 receptions (-154) is one of the safest bets on the board. He’s cleared this line in seven of his last 10 games and in all three of his career matchups against the Colts.

The Colts' secondary is ranked 23rd in the league and just gave up 375 yards and three touchdowns. That makes backing Meyers’ volume hard to pass up.

Sticking with the Raiders’ passing attack, I like Raiders tight end Brock Bowers Longest Reception Over 18.5 yards (-120). He’s hit this number in seven of his last 10 games and has missed it only six times in his young 21-game career.

Ultimately, the Colts’ ability to exploit mismatches through the air and on the ground sets them up for another productive week. Jones and Taylor headline the card, with Shrader once again offering steady value.

On the other side, Las Vegas has the matchups to test a secondary that’s still reeling. Meyers’ volume and Bowers’ big-play ability stand out as the cleanest ways for the Raiders to put pressure on Indianapolis.

The numbers point toward another week of value, and the props give us multiple ways to attack this slate.

The board is set up for another profitable Sunday. Good luck, and bet responsibly.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Recommended articles