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Oct 26, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) celebrates with Indianapolis Colts center Tanor Bortolini (60) after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Colts–Chiefs Could Reshape Entire AFC Playoff Picture

Originally posted on Indianapolis Colts on SI
By Sean Ackerman | Last updated Nov 19, 2025 12:00 PM ET

In the last six NFL seasons, the race for the AFC title ran through Kansas City. It's looking like that'll change in 2025.

The Indianapolis Colts are one of three teams battling for the number one seed in the conference, joining the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots. The Chiefs, on the other hand, are hanging on by a thread in the AFC playoff picture.

The Chiefs lost their last two games to fall back to .500 on the season, and are currently listed as the 9th seed in the AFC. They'll host the Colts at Arrowhead Stadium this weekend, and analysts are already pointing out the postseason implications this matchup will have.

The Scenario if Colts Win, Chiefs Lose

According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts currently have just over an 80% chance to make the playoffs. If they beat the Chiefs, that percentage rises to over 95%, making the Colts a near-lock to play in the postseason.

On the other side, the Chiefs currently have a 55% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose to Indy, that drops all the way down to just over 30%.

PFF analyst Timo Riske says that the Chiefs have the largest playoff leverage of the week, meaning their playoff percentage is affected the most of any team in the league based on this week's result.

Probably for the first time since Chiefs - Chargers in late 2017, the Chiefs have the highest playoff leverage of the week pic.twitter.com/09jDn7ep9W
— Timo Riske (@PFF_Moo) November 18, 2025

That can be both good and bad news for the Colts. The good news is that they have a chance to knock Kansas City out of the playoffs for the first time since the 2014 season. The bad news is that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have no other choice but to be on their A-game.

They'll face an extremely motivated Chiefs squad in one of the loudest stadiums in the league. This might be the most adversity the Colts face for the rest of the year, and it's the perfect chance to build some confidence in playoff-style football before January.

The Scenario if Colts Lose, Chiefs Win

Should the Colts lose, their playoff chances will fall to just under 75%. At 8-3, the Colts would still sit atop the AFC South, but if the Jaguars win against the Cardinals, the divisional race becomes much tighter.

Beating the Chiefs gives the Colts a lot of padding that they need before facing four divisional opponents. If they split those divisional games after beating the Chiefs, they'll practically have the AFC South title wrapped up.

Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

If the Chiefs beat the Colts, their playoff chances rise to just under 70%. The Chiefs would still be far behind in the AFC West race, but it would significantly boost their wild-card odds.

The bottom line is that a win for Indy doesn't just help their own playoff odds; it also puts Kansas City on the brink of elimination. If the Colts do get a top seed in the conference, they'll want to face a quarterback who hasn't won three Super Bowls in their first playoff game.

This Sunday's showdown will be one of the best of the year. Despite the result, it'll be interesting to watch how the Colts perform in a high-pressure environment.

This article first appeared on Indianapolis Colts on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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