Jayden Daniels Nic Antaya/GettyImages

Commanders face uncomfortable truth that could crush repeat hopes

Originally posted on Riggo's Rag | By Ryan McCafferty | Last updated Jun 19, 2025 8:00 AM ET

The Washington Commanders were the NFL's fairy tale story in 2024. Against all odds, the team went from winning four games the prior year to a 12-5 record and an appearance in the NFC Championship game.

Washington featured a first-year head coach in Dan Quinn, a first-year general manager in Adam Peters, and a rookie quarterback in No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels. He put together one of the greatest freshman campaigns in league history en route to winning league NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.

That said, the Commanders were also incredibly lucky. If they're going to build upon their 2024 success, they're going to have to beware of the dreaded regression to the mean.

Commanders can't take their luck for granted in crucial 2025 season

Sam Fortier from The Washington Post highlighted this uncomfortable dilemma in a fascinating article, citing some statistics that defined the team's 2024 success.

The Commanders were 9-4 in one-score games. This included a stretch of five in a row, spanning the end of the regular season and the wild-card playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in which Washington won on the final play of scrimmage.

Furthermore, the Commanders benefited from a lack of significant injuries. According to an advanced chart developed by NFL data scientist Tom Bliss, they were the luckiest team in the league by a wide margin on an individual play-by-play basis.

This chart accounts for a team's opponent's dropped passes, dropped interceptions, and missed field goals, as well as fumble recoveries by either team. Simply put, Washington can't bank on any of this happening again.

Final luck dashboard of 2024 season.

Most impactful plays this season:

Dropped Int: CLE dropped int vs BAL in Q4 (31.8%)
Dropped Pass: NO dropped 2pt Conv vs WAS in Q4 (92.9%)
FG: ATL made 58-yd FG vs NO in Q4 (64.3%)
Fumble Recovery: CIN fumble recovery vs BAL in OT (34.9%) pic.twitter.com/vwRoMol8KL
— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) January 6, 2025

For as magical as the Commanders' 2024 season was, it also must be acknowledged that they had, as the kids today would say, some "devil magic" on their side. Perhaps some good karma from the purging of Dan Snyder's regime, or a feast of the positive vibes from the novelty of everything surrounding the team being new and fresh played a part. But it must be sustained.

Or maybe Daniels is just a clutch god. Even so, he only plays one side of the football field.

He's not going to be able to come to the rescue every time Washington is in a close game. Other times, the defense is going to be forced to step up.

Regardless, it's something that must be kept in mind ahead of the 2025 campaign. One can say the Commanders made their own breaks last year, but sometimes the best way to be lucky is to avoid positioning yourself to have to rely on luck to begin with.

If Washington is going to take another step forward, that's what needs to happen.