Commanders gift Chargers free draft pick in latest prediction

The 2025 NFL Draft is in the books and the LA Chargers are doing whatever they can to get extra picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. That is why the team slapped a rare UFA tender on running back J.K. Dobbins, who could end up finding a home with the Washington Commanders.

Because of the UFA tender, if Dobbins signs with another team, it will count toward the compensatory pick formula in 2026. If Dobbins does not sign with a team, he returns to the Chargers for a 10% raise next season (which is 10% above league minimum).

With Dobbins still on the market and the complicating layer of the UFA tender, many have assumed he is destined to return to the Chargers. But that may not be the case. ESPN's Matt Bowen broke down the best fits for the biggest names available and made a compelling case for Dobbins to join Austin Ekeler on the Washington Commanders.

"In Kliff Kingsbury's offense in Washington, I could see Dobbins providing competition for Brian Robinson Jr. as the early-down runner," Bowen writes. "Dobbins can run between the tackles and has the juice to create big plays on the ground. He took 27 carries for 10 or more yards last season."

Commanders circled as "best" team to sign J.K. Dobbins, gift Chargers a draft pick

How much Dobbins signs for will decide what kind of compensatory pick the Chargers receive. At this point in the offseason, Dobbins is not expected to get much, so the Chargers would be hoping for an incentive-based deal where Dobbins hits his incentives to earn a bigger pay day.

In reality, the Chargers would be lucky to get a seventh-round pick for Dobbins and there are sitll more complicating factors than him just signing with another team. If Mike Williams and Tyler Conklin play up to their incentives then they will offset any pick that comes in for Dobbins.

However, if Dobbins somehow earns more and plays a large snap share, and Williams and Conklin don't deliver, then there is a world in which the Bolts get a day three pick.

As far as Dobbins goes, the Commanders would be a solid fit for the explosive running back. He would join Austin Ekeler as a former Charger on the roster, and quite frankly, would give Washington more juice in a similar way as he did with the Chargers.

Dobbins would have to earn his snaps ahead of Ekeler as he is a respected veteran. But if Dobbins can just stay healthy, there is no reason why he can't beat out Ekeler for the RB2 role. Heck, Dobbins looked so impressive at times last season that he could even cement himself as the RB1.

That would be the best-case scenario for the Chargers, as it would play into Dobbins' hypothetical incentives as well as the snap-count share that factors into the compensatory formula.