Commanders' rebuild strategy facing turbulence before it takes shape

The Washington Commanders are below .500 as they near the midpoint of the season. With several challenging games ahead, that record could get worse.

This was not the outcome Adam Peters and Dan Quinn saw when they made their plans during the offseason. Coming off an outstanding 2024, the general manager followed a strategy that prioritized winning now over long-term building. There is still a lot of football left, but things do not exactly look perfect at the moment.

Some analysts predicted this. They pointed to the Commanders' excellent record in close games last year and projected a regression to the mean, which would even things out. After all, how many Hail Marys are you likely to hit? The loss to the Chicago Bears this year felt a little bit like payback for the improbable win last season.

The most significant single reason Washington has gone from a near-elite team to a middle-of-the-road one is that quarterback Jayden Daniels has regressed a bit from his spectacular rookie season. However, the Commanders' problems run deeper than any one player.

Daniels is a poster child for a 2024 draft class that is not taking the steps fans hoped to see in their second year. And that has slowed down the Commanders’ rebuild.

Commanders' rebuilding process has more questions than answers, and it's because of their young core

Peters came from an organization that always valued building through the draft. Sure, if another club were willing to give up on an elite talent like Christian McCaffrey or Trent Williams, the San Francisco 49ers would pounce. But it only worked because they built a solid, deep core via the college ranks.

The cupboard was mainly bare when Peters came to the Commanders after the 2023 season. He attacked on multiple levels, signing many veterans, young and old alike, in free agency. But the centerpiece of the rebuild was the 2024 draft.

Nine total picks. Six of them were in the first 100 selections. If Peters hit on most of them, the rebuild would be well underway.

Last year, it looked like he had succeeded brilliantly. Daniels was a true franchise quarterback capable of keeping the team in any game. Mike Sainristil and Brandon Coleman were also major contributors.

Other blue chippers like Jer’Zhan Newton, Ben Sinnott, and Luke McCaffrey came along more slowly, but the team remained optimistic about all of them. Jordan Magee was hampered by injury, and Dominique Hampton spent the year on the fringes. But the last pick, Javontae Jean-Baptiste, showed some promise on defense.

In all, it looked like a solid base for a successful rebuild.

Several of the players who produced little last year have taken some strides in their second seasons. McCaffrey has made the most significant jump, but Newton, Sinnott, and Magee all look better. The problem is that none of them has emerged as a reliable front-line performer.

This is especially true of Newton and Sinnott. At best, they are average. Washington hoped for more from a couple of second-round picks.

The fact that none of the mid-level players from the 2024 rookie class has made strides this season is troubling. The fact that the more successful members of that class have regressed might be cause for panic.

This obviously applies to Daniels most of all, but there’s no real cause for alarm there. He has played without most of his top wide receivers this year and has been injured himself. He will be just fine.

Sainristil is more concerning. He was being acknowledged as a leader during his rookie season and had a future star written all over him. This year, he has been part of an entire secondary that seems out of sorts. His Pro Football Focus grade has dropped by more than 10 points, and though PFF marks are sometimes poor barometers of play, in this case, it seems accurate. He simply isn’t playing very well.

Like Daniels, Sainristil is probably in a bit of a funk and will regain his form before long. Maybe the most ominous story from the 2024 draft class belongs to Brandon Coleman. He does not merely appear to be in a funk. He is looking more like a swing-and-a-miss.

Last year, Peters waited to draft a left tackle until the third round. Because the general manager rightfully chose Daniels in the first round, most of the elite prospects were gone by the time his next pick came up. He was generally praised for not panicking.

Peters did not reach for a questionable prospect in the second round. He waited another round and watched four more tackles be removed from the board. But for much of last season. Coleman looked to be as good or better than most who went before him. He was brought along slowly but became a legitimate starter by season’s end.

This year, Peters acquired two new tackles, both of whom have higher upside. The thinking seemed to be that Coleman could easily slide inside and beef up the guard position. Washington tried that for two games and then quickly changed course.

Coleman has not been heard from since. Four other players have lined up at guard in the past month, but the No. 67 overall pick last year has not been one of them.

Has the team given up on Coleman? They won’t admit that, but it certainly seems to be the case. If so, how much longer will they wait on other highly-touted players like Newton and Sinnott before moving on?

Peters does not have much draft capital at his disposal right now. He gave up a lot to acquire veterans like Laremy Tunsil, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Marshon Lattimore. Those deals were made under the assumption that the Commanders had a core of talented young players that would jumpstart the rebuild.

Last year, that plan seemed to be ahead of schedule. The performance of many of those young players so far in 2025 leaves fans wondering whether the plan can still succeed.