Commanders' Surprising Win Total Projection Revealed

With a brand-new coaching staff and the evident roster overhaul coming this offseason, we examine why the Commanders will and will not meet their win total set by Vegas' oddsmakers.

Why the Commanders WILL Go Over 7.5 Wins

Daniels missing over 10 games in 2025 due to injury really tanked the team into the doldrums. A full, healthy season of Daniels has shown the ceiling of the Commanders, and with his unique dual-threat ability throughout a full season could return them to 2024 form, boosting the offense's efficiency.

The Commanders were the worst team in the entire league on defense this past season, and they should use their $70+ million in cap space and seventh overall pick to add key pieces, specifically on pass rushers and the secondary, in free agency and the draft to fix these glaring weaknesses to avoid another down season.

Continuity with Dan Quinn still at the helm should help matters, learning from the hard lessons learned in 2025. Add in that the Commanders have a manageable schedule, with some favorable matchups against the NFC, and home-field advantage could help secure more divisional wins than not to push the Commanders over 7.5 wins.

An improved roster, fewer injuries, and solid showings from the new coaching staff should allow the Commanders to get back to a winning franchise and easily push them over their 7.5 win total.

Why the Commanders WILL NOT Go Over 7.5 Wins

Now for the not-so-fun part. The Commanders are in trouble if they aren't able to get things aligned from top to bottom.

The Commanders play in one of the toughest divisions in football, the NFC East, and with the Philadelphia Eagles still maintaining their stranglehold, the return of the Dallas Cowboys, and the expected rise of the New York Giants, they will have their work cut out for them. The playoff bar is set high in the NFC, with it being such a deep conference, raising doubts about sustained consistency for the Commanders.

Injuries are also a big concern following the events of 2025. The Commanders' over-reliance on Daniels haunted them in 2025, and they must keep him and the rest of the roster as healthy as possible if they hope not to end up in the same situation.

The Commanders have some of the most money to spend in free agency, but with that, you lose continuity. Washington has been this way for the past couple of seasons, and if the new guys they bring in aren't able to gel quickly, the team could see a repeat of what happened this past year.

The line being set at 7.5 seems like a "prove-it" number, and that is exactly what the Commanders must do.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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