Commanders vs. Buccaneers prediction: Odds, lines, best bets, expert picks for NFL Week 1

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Picks

SPREAD

This is where my bet for the game is, as I'm on the Commanders as an underdog.

MONEYLINE

Washington could pull off the upset, but I'm focused on the spread for my pick.

TOTAL

I have no bet on the Commanders-Buccaneersover/under.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Pick: Commanders +3.5

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Odds

Sunday, Sept. 8

4:25 p.m. ET

FOX

Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

• Commanders vs. Buccaneers Point Spread: Commanders +3.5 | Buccaneers -3.5
• Commanders vs. Buccaneers Total: Over/Under 43.5
• Commanders vs. Buccaneers Moneyline: Commanders +150 | Buccaneers -185

How to Watch Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Commanders vs. Buccaneers is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET live from Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. The game is live on FOX and other streaming platforms, such as YouTube TV.

Commanders-Buccaneers Betting Trends

• 59% of bets and 78% of the money are on the Commanders to cover the spread.
• 50% of bets and 89% of the money are on the over.
• 97% of bets and 85% of the money on the moneyline are on the Buccaneers.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 1 Picks

I get it, rookie quarterbacks do tend to struggle on the road, but this is just too many points for me with a mediocre/below-average Tampa Bay team that lost Dave Canales. I think there's going to be an adjustment period for Baker Mayfield in a new offense that Canales isn't running. New offensive coordinator Liam Coen is going to install more motion and pre-snap movement, so there's going to be a learning curve for this offense.

It's not too long ago that Mayfield was thought of as one of the worst quarterbacks in the league. He was bouncing around between the Panthers, lost the starting job, then went to the Rams and had a little bit of a resurgence before thriving last season with the Bucs. I don't think that's going to be the version of Mayfield that we see moving forward.

Mayfield does have some familiarity with Coen from his brief stint with the Rams. That year, though, was the Rams' worst offensive season under Sean McVay, although Matthew Stafford was injured for most of it. It still doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence, especially in Week 1.

Meanwhile in Washington there was a huge culture change over the offseason. Dan Quinn was hired as the head coach. He was a guy we routinely bet against in Atlanta, but I think he has changed in terms of how he'll be as a head coach.

Quinn will have a defense that still leaves some things to be desired in terms of personnel, but he'll probably have that unit playing a lot better than last year. Some of these perceived weaknesses for this Washington defense could actually be a little better than expected. I'm looking at you, the secondary.

One of Tampa Bay's biggest weaknesses is the interior line, which will face Bobby Wagner this week. What does Baker Mayfield struggle with? Interior pressure. I think this is a good matchup for Washington.

With Tampa Bay's defense, it's hit or miss. Todd Bowles should have them playing alright. Daniels, though, is the kind of quarterback who you want in this kind of game. He'll be able to scramble and make some off-script plays that will help Washington stay in this game.

Overall, Tampa Bay got lucky last year and faced the Eagles in the playoffs, a team that was on the worst downturn ever. I think the perception of Tampa Bay is a little skewed.

Simply put, these are just two below-average teams and you see a bunch of these teams in that category in Week 1. That's why Week 1 'dogs really, I think, kill it. There are all these perceptions from the previous year that carry. When that happens, underdogs are going to win quite a few of these games.

Best Bet for Commanders vs. Buccaneers

Even though you have the rookie quarterback trend working against you, you do have a lot of trends benefiting Washington.

Week 1 'dogs that won between four and six games the previous season are 71-35 (67%) against the spread. Also, as a head coach, Bowles is 7-14 (33%) as a favorite of a field goal or more in his career. Mayfield as a favorite of any number is 14-26 (35%) against the spread in his career. Week 1 road underdogs that didn't make the prior postseason are 50-30 (63%) since 2012.

It's just a boatload of trends to support Washington, which has the secret weapon: a dual-threat quarterback.

Pick: Commanders +3.5

About the Author

Chris is a Senior Analyst at the Action Network who specializes in NFL betting, NBA betting, and fantasy football.

Follow Chris Raybon @ChrisRaybon on Twitter/X.