Could the Lions look for an RB in first round of draft?

Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes shrugged away the idea that running back is a low-value position in the first round, sparking new speculation that the team could look that way in the first round.

Holmes, who worked with the Rams' organization from 2003 to 2020, said that when the team took Todd Gurley 10th overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, no one critiqued the move due to his level of production.

"I understand the narrative," Holmes said about not taking a running back in the first round. "I don’t think anyone said in ‘16, ‘17 or ‘18, ‘Oh man, the Rams took Todd Gurley at 10.’ He was just a really good RB and we didn’t bat an eye."

Holmes was the St. Louis Rams' director of scouting at the time Gurley was drafted, likely making him a part of the selection process. The Lions hold two first-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, and it's possible they could be looking at the running back position again.

One of the toughest evaluations in this year's draft is Texas running back Bijan Robinson, not because he's a difficult talent to evaluate, but because he's such an obvious talent at what many consider a low-value position. Since 2018, only four running backs have gone in the first round, and none went higher than 24th.

Robinson is one of the highest touted running back prospects in recent history, though, and is revered by some as a "generational" prospect at the position. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com said that Robinson has a chance to become "one of the more productive runners in the league very quickly," and Holmes implied that if a running back can produce early, it's worth a first-round selection.

The Lions have two picks in the top 20 in this year's draft, picking at Nos. 6 and 18. If they want to insure they draft Robinson, they could draft him sixth, but if they believe he will be available later, they can wait to draft him in the teens instead.

There are plenty of reasons why the Lions could be interested in a running back like Robinson too. In 2022, the Lions were third in the NFL in touchdowns and fifth in scoring. They could be looking to continue to add talent to an already potent offense.

As well, the Lions do not seem to be sold on fourth-year running back D'Andre Swift, who enters his last year under contract. Swift has dealt with injuries since entering the NFL, missing at least three games every season, and played a career-low 42% of his team's offensive snaps in 2023.

Swift saw at least 40% of his team's snaps in each of his first four games in 2023, playing 50% of them in three of the four, but he played less than 40% of the Lions' offensive snaps in seven of his final 10 games. The team also does not seem to see Swift as a bell cow back, giving him five or fewer carries more times (six games) than he saw double-digit carries (three games).

If the Lions' coaching staff is not convinced that Swift is the long-term answer, they could look toward their future by drafting Robinson and letting Swift walk in free agency in 2024. They could pair the Texas product with free agency acquisition David Montgomery, who signed a three-year deal worth $18M, and if the team wants to make Robinson the feature back, Montgomery can be cut after Year 2 of his deal with a dead-cap hit of just $2.25M.

While the Lions potentially drafting Robinson may not be the best move for fantasy football managers, for a team like Detroit with a talented offense that sees a chance to win now in the NFC, it's a move that could make sense to win football games soon.