Cowboys' outlook improving but this season may wed them to a bad future

Dunk on me if so inclined, but I stand by the central thrust of this statement. Cooper has undeniably exceeded the fairly modest expectations he set out over 2017 and the first six weeks of 2018 in Oakland. Over the last three games alone, he has put up 473 yards and five touchdowns, amounts that far outstrip the 280 yards and one touchdown he had to start the 2018 season with the Raiders. Cooper had tons of success in college at Alabama and was a solid receiver, albeit somewhat plagued by drops, during his first two seasons in the NFL, so there was reason to believe he was capable of bouncing back. Dallas’ faith has so far been rewarded for taking the substantial risk of dealing a first-round pick for him.

Yet even with Cooper providing a lift to the Dallas passing game and the Saints and Rams faltering a little in recent weeks, it’s hard to consider the Cowboys as still anything more than a dark horse in the NFC. Their success, largely driven by defense, would be an intriguing counternarrative in a season largely driven by offensive records. In that sense, it’s fitting that an offensive addition would be the difference. But will it be enough?

For starters, it would take a minor miracle for the Cowboys to unseat either New Orleans or Los Angeles for one of the conference’s byes. Granted, Dallas has a head-to-head win over the Saints, but passing them would require both Dallas winning all three of its final games and the Saints losing all three of theirs.

While the Cowboys have been dominant at home, they are a paltry 2-4 on the road. They can pad that stat back to .500 with remaining road games against the Colts and Giants, but it’s clear they’ll be at a disadvantage once they need to go through New Orleans and Los Angeles in the postseason. The Cowboys handed the Saints a frustrating upset once, but twice will be a tall order especially in the Superdome.

Meanwhile, Cooper’s surge in production has coincided with mostly improved play by Dak Prescott. But even with better numbers overall, there are enough turnovers and missed throws to be concerning for the postseason. On Sunday, an errant throw by Prescott in the third quarter let Philadelphia back into a game that Dallas had been owning up until that point. 

Dallas’ defense puts the team in better shape than most to hang with the Saints and Rams, but Prescott has to almost be near-perfect for the Cowboys to have a realistic shot. It’s encouraging that he hasn’t had a true stinker of an outing since the first half of the season, but the playoffs are still three weeks away. That's time enough for a cooldown over the next month before Dallas gets its shot at the conference favorites.

Then there’s the matter of repercussions beyond this season. By midseason, when Dallas was off to a 3-5 start, there was talk that head coach Jason Garrett wouldn’t survive the end of the year. Jerry Jones had to shoot down speculation that he was ready to make an in-season change.

That ended up being sound judgment, at least for 2018, but what about beyond? This will mark only the third playoff appearance for Dallas under Garrett in eight-and-a-half years. Since winning Super Bowl XXX after the 1995 season, the Cowboys haven’t reached the NFC Championship, and it still seems like a bit of a long shot this year despite the recent hot streak. What if Dallas is upset in the wild-card round? Would all that regular-season success and a lackluster division title for a first-round exit be worth not having a first-round pick in 2019?

For Garrett, this turnaround likely buys him at least a couple of more seasons, especially if he gets at least one playoff win. But then there’s the matter of the contracts for Prescott and Cooper. Both are slated to enter the final year of their rookie contracts in 2019, but Jones has already made public assurances that Prescott will get an extension. The Cowboys will likely need to reach one with Cooper as well, as his salary balloons from $700,000 this year to nearly $14 million in 2019. In terms of skill, the Cowboys got their investment's worth in dealing for Cooper, but they will be in tighter financial straits with the veteran than if they had kept the pick. And it’s hardly like there are no other areas on the roster that could use improvement.

Dallas’ defense has the potential to be one of the better units for years to come with the emergence of young linebackers Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith. The danger of this successful season is getting themselves locked into a bad situation on offense, which could stall the progress made in the second half of 2018.