Cowboys Victims of Recency Bias in Brutal Playoff Prediction

The 2024 season is without a doubt one the Dallas Cowboys would like to put in the rearview mirror. The Cowboys finished the season with a record of 7-10 and failed to make the playoffs. However, it was a season filled with injuries - most notably to franchise quarterback Dak Prescott, who missed eight games.

Can 2025 - in part due to the health of the QB and in part due to the new leadership of well-received first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer - be different?

Pro Football Network recently predicted which teams will make the 2025 NFL playoffs, and PFN did not have Dallas as one of the NFC representatives. 

The site has the Washington Commanders, Detroit Lions, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Arizona Cardinals as division winners while the Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, and Philadelphia Eagles secure wild card spots.

According to PFN, the Cowboys will not even be in the hunt for the playoffs as the Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons are the teams named who “just miss the NFL playoffs.” ...

With Dallas - in a brutal call - finishing short of even that.

Our view?

Context is always key in way-too-early playoff predictions such as the one PFT has provided. ... and we say "recency bias'' is in play here. ... That is, some have their heads stuck in what they saw during last year's slow collapse ...

And not in what this club has done over the course of its recent history.

The Cowboys in the Dak Era have proven that when healthy, they are a playoff contender and a playoff team, hence three consecutive years of 12-5 records under now-dismissed head coach Mike McCarthy. 

The cards McCarthy was dealt last season certainly did not feature any aces after dealing with injuries to Dak and other stars such as Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, and Trevon Diggs.

The argument can be made that it's the NFL and all teams deal with injuries, but it is hard to overcome the adversity of having core players sidelined at the same time.

Barring a catastrophe in the area of health, the 2025 version of the Dallas Cowboys deserves more respect after nudging the roster forward in free agency and seemingly improving the team with an impressive 2025 NFL Draft haul. 

Time will tell if the Cowboys can return to form and reestablish themselves as one of the NFC’s elite teams. But the only thing that says they can't?

Recency bias.