The Indianapolis Colts roll into Week 7 owning the NFL’s best record — and they’ve been just as dominant for bettors, cashing tickets against the spread and in player prop markets all season long.
Player props have officially dropped, and we’re looking into our top plays for the Colts vs. Chargers Week 7 matchup. We’re 16-7 on Colts' best bets this season.
Let’s take a look into the mindsets of Shane Steichen and Jim Harbaugh to get a feel for what game plan we might see in the Colts’ second trip to SoFi.
Starting with Shane Steichen — he knows Los Angeles boasts the 4th-best run defense in the league (76.9), per Pro Football Focus. That leads us to believe Steichen will try to exploit this defense in a different way.
Although the Chargers’ defense is stout, they rank just 30th in pass rush (61.8) among all NFL teams. That’s a weak spot Steichen can attack, giving his veteran QB all the time in the pocket he needs.
That brings me to my first favorite bet for the Week 7 showdown — Colts quarterback Daniel Jones Over 19.5 completions (-135).
Jones has hit this line in eight of his last ten games. With L.A.’s soft pass rush, Steichen should give Jones plenty of opportunities to attack the secondary.
Continuing with this high-powered Colts offense — which ranks 1st in scoring with 194 points — expect plenty of red-zone trips for Indianapolis. That leads us to Colts K Michael Badgley Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110).
Even though the Colts’ offense ranks 3rd overall via PFF (81.0), the Chargers still carry the 6th-ranked defense (72.4). So while Indy should find its way into scoring territory often, don’t expect perfection on third down.
Badgley’s Over 1.5 field goals feels like one of the most dependable plays on the board.
But when the Colts do break through in the red zone, they usually turn to one guy — their star running back Jonathan Taylor, who’s making a serious case for best back in football this year.
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (-170) has been an absolute money printer. Taylor has scored 15 TDs in his last 11 games, and with a Chargers defense that ranks 27th in tackling (44.8), he should find paydirt at least once on Sunday.
Now let’s shift to Jim Harbaugh’s mindset. He’s a sharp coach and won’t overlook the glaring holes on Indianapolis’ defensive side.
We won’t sugarcoat it — last week, this secondary surrendered 320 yards and two touchdowns to 32-year-old backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett.
Now, I love Jacoby as much as the next guy, but he’s not exactly known for lighting up quality defenses through the air. He hadn't topped 300 yards passing in a game since 2022 — until Sunday.
Harbaugh will almost certainly attack the same banged-up Colts secondary that’s missing Kenny Moore II, Charvarius Ward, and Jaylon Jones — their top three corners heading into the year. All out.
That brings us to Chargers wide receiver Ladd McConkey Over 62.5 receiving yards (-115).
McConkey went for 100 last game and doesn’t look ready to slow down against the 18th-ranked Colts secondary.
Another wrinkle in the Chargers’ passing game comes out of the backfield. Los Angeles ranks 28th in pass block (49.3), meaning Herbert will have to get the ball out fast.
That makes Kimani Vidal Over 2.5 receptions (-135) especially appealing. In his first career start last week, he hauled in three catches — and with Herbert’s limited pocket time, Vidal’s over looks like a strong play.
When you put it all together, this matchup feels like a classic clash of styles — Steichen’s balance and creativity against Harbaugh’s grit and structure. But right now, Indianapolis simply looks like the more complete and confident football team.
Indianapolis keeps printing tickets and silencing doubters in the process.
The Colts have rewarded bettors all season by playing disciplined, complementary football. Until someone proves they can slow down Shane Steichen’s group, the smart money stays on Indianapolis.
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