Daring Chiefs-Chargers Forecast Has 5 Pillars

Reid and Nagy will innovate, sort of

Kansas City’s offensive line looks like a string of dangerously tangled Christmas lights. The Chiefs need a quick trip to Lowe’s.

Next to a lifesize Puka Nacua cutout, the Chiefs will find a few plays from the Rams’ playbook. And against the Chargers on Sunday, Kansas City will use more 13 personnel – one back and three tight ends – than they’ve ever used in the Patrick Mahomes era.

“Yeah, the sweeping changes aren't going to do anything for us,” offensive coordinator Matt Nagy said Thursday. “We know what we have. That's who we are and we believe in what we're doing.”

Two things can be true, though. They won’t make sweeping changes but they will make tweaks out of 13 personnel to catch the Chargers off guard. Down multiple starters on its offensive front, Kansas City needs to hit the Chargers in the mouth. And with four healthy tight ends, now’s the time to get them involved.

A non-offensive touchdown

Kansas City never under Andy Reid has finished a season without a single touchdown from its defense or special teams. That’ll change Sunday. Tyquan Thornton will finally hit a kickoff – and there won’t be a holding penalty to bring it back. It’ll mark the Chiefs’ first kickoff-return touchdown in five years, since Byron Pringle’s 102-yard score at Denver, Oct. 25, 2020.

Chiefs will lose a critical fumble on a third down

Esa Pole played well over his first 63 NFL snaps on Sunday. But Khalil Mack, Derwin James and company now have tape on the rookie. Not good. While Kansas City is the first NFL team since the 1970 merger with one-or-fewer fumbles over its first 13 games of a season, the Chiefs’ luck will run out Sunday. The Chargers will strip sack Mahomes and recover the fumble.

Chiefs will win by two scores

Last week’s 20-10 loss to Houston marked the first time the Chiefs lost a game by more than one score since the Super Bowl blowout in February. Kansas City’s plus-63 points margin isn’t just a reason for their enigma; it’s also a reason they’ll win by nine-or-more points on Sunday.

Kansas City is only the second team in the Super Bowl era to finish its first 13 games of a season with a point margin of at least plus-60 with seven-or-more losses. The other was the Cowboys in 2019, when Dallas missed the playoffs with an 8-8 mark.

A win Sunday will have significant NFL implications

The road to Game 272, as the NFL affectionately calls it, will begin at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. A Chiefs win over the Chargers will set the stage for the league to schedule Chargers at Broncos in a snowy, final regular-season game in primetime Jan. 4. Kansas City’s playoff hopes will hang in the balance.