David Bakhtiari contract situation creates layers for his future with the Packers

Since suffering a career-altering knee injury in December, 2020, left tackle David Bakhtiari hasn't been able to consistently be on the field for the Green Bay Packers. By the end of this season, Bakhtiari will have missed 42 of the last 55 Packers games, plus parts of some of the 13 games in which he participated, plus any postseason games the Packers might play. It's an unfortunate reality, and it might become even trickier next offseason, because there are more layers to the situation.

Future

Right before the injury in 2020, the Packers agreed to give Bakhtiari a four-year, $92 million extension. He deservedly became the highest-paid left tackle in history. But when he got injured, his deal became a huge problem for Green Bay, especially when the team had to handle more cap issues over the last three years, when they were trying to increase the chances of another title in the Aaron Rodgers twilight years.

The Packers decided to restructure Bakhtiari's deal multiple times to open up immediate cap space. However, the left tackle never agreed to add void years, which will force the Packers hand in 2024.

Because there’s no void year, every penny the Packers moved will hit in next year's cap. Bakhtiari is slated to make $21.4 million, but his cap hit will be $40.465 million. And based on his recent history of negotiations, there's no indication that the left tackle will agree to a new restructure, just adding void years to create cap space, without a real extension.

Packers options to keep Bakhtiari in 2024

The Packers can let Bakhtiari play his contract out. That would be heavy for the cap sheet, but Green Bay was more diligent this year and will have the space if needed. In 2023, the Packers were forced to move money around to be cap compliant, but they were also the 31st team in the NFL in cash spending, so the situation for 2024 is much cleaner. With that option, the hit would be a hard pill to swallow in 2024, but there would be no future hits.

They also can extend Bakhtiari. If the left tackle is healthy enough, parties could sit at the negotiation table again and find a fair common ground. Obviously, Bakhtiari isn't as valuable as he was three years ago, but when he plays, he is still able to perform at a high level.

Let's say they add a one-year, $10 million extension on top of the deal Bakhtiari already has, getting him under contract through 2025, adding three void years on top of if for cap purposes. In practicality, he would play two years for $31.4 million.

Even keeping his earnings in 2024 at $21.4 million, it would be possible to reduce his cap hit to $24.305 million, opening up $16.16 million in space. However, that move would create $26.16 million in future cap hits. It's ok if Bakhtiari is playing at a decent level, and he would have to agree to that, but that's probably the healthiest option.

Trade or release

The Packers could also get rid of Bakhtiari. The first and better option would be trading him. The team would have $19.065 million in dead money, but would open up $21.4 million in cap space. The problem here is to find someone willing to give up draft capital and pay Bakhtiari his 2024 salary. Maybe a desperate team like the New York Jets agrees to it, but it's far from a certainty.

The other option is a regular release. It's the same numbers: $19.065 in dead money, $21.4 in cap savings. As Bakhtiari will be in the last year of his deal and without void years after that, there's no option to apply a post-June 1st designation.

Layers

The situation, though, it's not as simple because David Bakhtiari is handling a significant injury. If he is cut before passing a physical, he qualifies for injury protection. He would receive an extra $1.23 million, which would compound with his $19.065 in dead money.

According to independent cap analyst Ken Ingalls, Bakhtiari could also have the option to file an injury grievance. For this to happen, the player would have to allege that there was some type of wrong doing throughout the recovery process — be it a surgery mistake or inappropriate rehabilitation process, for example.

If he files a grievance, 40% of the value of the process (usually the player's salary) would immediately hit the Packers cap. And that's $8.6 million in 2024. So in this case, Bakhtiari's dead money would jump to $27.665 million.

The grievance would take some time to be resolved, maybe years. If Bakhtiari wins it, the other 60% would be added to the Packers cap hit. If the lineman loses the process, the $8.6 million would be credited back.

In the case of a trade, it's slightly different. The acquiring team would probably have to agree to take Bakhtiari's contract before him passing a physical. So, that would most likely demand some kind of conditional applied to the deal. For example, the Packers could trade Bakhtiari for a seventh-round pick, but the compensation would progress based on how many games the left tackle plays.

This would be good for the Packers because they would open cap space, and there would be no risk of a grievance or additional costs for Green Bay.

It’s a real conundrum for the Packers. If David Bakhtiari is healthy, he is still more than good enough to play, and there have been several recent cases of linemen playing well into their 30s and even early 40s. But money and his injury history are huge factors, and Brian Gutekunst will have to consider everything to make his final decision.