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From left: wide receivers CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), Henry Ruggs III (Alabama), Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) and Justin Jefferson (LSU). USA TODAY Sports: Matthew Emmons | Jeff Blake (2) | Mark J. Rebilas

Deep WR draft class creates high stakes for NFC contenders

By Sam Robinson | Last updated 4/15/20

Exiting the primary free agency period, a predictable trend developed at wide receiver. Veteran free agents encountered a tepid market ahead of 2020’s long-anticipated, receiver-stacked draft. Dig a bit deeper, and it becomes clear the middle and back end of the first round — and parts of Rounds 2 and 3 — will be critical to several contenders’ 2020 hopes.

Many of the NFC’s Super Bowl threats will enter the draft with a similar need: a starter-caliber wideout. Wide receivers are developing quicker than ever, and teams’ views of this historically deep class create a high-stakes backdrop.

A group of non-quarterback rookies is set to have an unusually significant say in the NFC’s pecking order. This position’s talent will create a widespread pursuit in next week's draft and help shape early-2020s contention windows for teams at or near the top of the conference’s hierarchy.

For various reasons, four 2019 NFC playoff teams, the Eagles, Packers, Vikings and 49ers, have the same primary void on offense. Each largely bypassing veterans in free agency did little to mask the group’s common deficiency. These contenders must navigate each other — but also at least three AFC middle-class teams, the Broncos, Colts and Raiders, and other franchises eyeing best-player-available picks — to capitalize on the strength of this draft.

Scouts Inc. places 12 wide receivers among its top 70 prospects, and Hall of Fame evaluator Gil Brandt rates nine in his top 50. ESPN draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. graded 30-35 wideouts as third-round talents or better. This perceived depth creates a temptation to wait and select players at scarcer positions earlier, but these NFC contenders’ glaring needs make that risky.

Twenty-five of the NFL’s top 29 receiving yardage seasons among rookies came from first- or second-round picks. And in an offseason when teams have less information about prospects, getting too cute could be costly.

Alabama targets Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III will be off the board by the middle of Round 1, as will Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb. Jeudy and Lamb are the best bets to be top-10 picks and, thus, unavailable to the NFC contender group without a trade. Fast-rising LSU playmaker Justin Jefferson appears to have climbed into the mid-first-round picture too.

But the draft’s second tier is extensive. It includes size-speed prospects Tee Higgins (Clemson) and Denzel Mims (Baylor), diminutive but explosive playmakers Jalen Reagor (TCU) and K.J. Hamler (Penn State) and first- or second-round Pac-12 talents Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State) and Michael Pittman Jr. (USC). The race to secure top- and second-level prospects among this group will be heated.

This talent flood comes at a perfect time for the receiver-needy NFC teams, who either erred in previous investments or walked away from starters to leave gaping holes. Among them, the Eagles, Packers, Vikings and 49ers hold six first-round picks.

For the 49ers, the loss of Emmanuel Sanders to the Saints stings, as it weakens their depth chart and strengthens perhaps their top adversary. And for the purposes of the 2020 draft, they gave the Broncos third- and fourth-round picks for three months of Sanders. The 49ers have shied away from free-agent pass-catchers since whiffing on Pierre Garcon and saw, through Deebo Samuel’s versatile contributions, the impact a correctly scouted early-round wideout can have.

Over in Philadelphia, accomplished GM Howie Roseman misfired on extensions for Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. Both Eagles 30-somethings enter 2020 with injury issues and unmovable contracts that comprise more than $24 million of the Eagles’ cap. Carson Wentz’s backloaded deal becomes a full-on franchise-quarterback accord in 2021, with his cap number spiking from $18.7M in 2020 to $34.7M in ’21. So the Eagles must help Wentz now — after last season ended with Philadelphia using one of the thinnest receiver groups ever in a playoff game — and add a cost-controlled salary for the future.

The 2019 Packers represent a prime example of the cost of waiting too long to add receiver talent. After letting Randall Cobb walk last year in free agency, the Packers saw just one pass-catcher eclipse 500 yards. Except for in 1982’s strike-shortened season, that had not happened in Green Bay since 1977. Beyond Davante Adams, the Packers saddled Aaron Rodgers with declining tight end Jimmy Graham, inconsistent 2018 fifth-round pick Marquez Valdes-Scantling and ex-UDFA Allen Lazard.

The Packers have been linked to early-round quarterbacks Jordan Love (Utah State) and Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma). Given their Rodgers-dependent Super Bowl window, they cannot afford a luxury pick. Signed through 2023, the 36-year-old superstar needs at least one pass-catcher — maybe two — early in this draft.

Like the 49ers, the Vikings hold two first-rounders. With Stefon Diggs in Buffalo and Adam Thielen missing a chunk of last season due to injury, Minnesota possesses an obvious need. A rookie-contract receiver will be a refreshing change for a perennially cap-strapped team that extended QB Kirk Cousins, has Thielen signed at $16.2M per year and has begun extension discussions with contract-year running back Dalvin Cook. Of course, drafting a wideout and coaxing production from said player are different matters. The same Vikings front office whiffed badly on 2016 first-rounder Laquon Treadwell.

While the 2015 and ’16 first rounds reveal mostly wideout mistakes, contenders benefited greatly from early-round receivers in recent years. The Saints do not reach their late-2010s heights without Michael Thomas (Round 2, 2016). The 2017 Steelers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Round 2) and Rams (Cooper Kupp, Round 3) landed immediate fits who are 2020 extension candidates. The 49ers, Seahawks and Titans certainly benefited from second-round hits on Samuel, D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown, respectively, last year.

It is not a coincidence that well-built NFCers left noticeable vacancies in their projected starting lineups. The tactics these franchises — and the others eyeing this historic talent pool — employ will make for a critical draft storyline. If this class is as advertised, it will not only affect 2020 betting odds but will also help tell the story of the NFL’s next several years.

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