Derrick Henry will need to join more exclusive clubs to help Baltimore Ravens justify his new 2-year contract extension

Henry, in his first year with the Ravens, rewarded the franchise’s faith in him by posting a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns and flirting with 2,000 yards — Henry finished the regular season with 1,921 yards on the ground, the second-highest single-season total of his career.

The result for Henry this summer? $25 million guaranteed at signing while adding two new years to his pre-existing contact with Baltimore. It’s well earned and, when compared to the adjustment Saquon Barkley got from the Philadelphia Eagles this offseason, could be considered a steal — if Henry saves off Father Time. 

Henry is entering into stormy waters from NFL running backs, which does put a level of risk into the back end of Henry’s new three-year deal. Henry turned 31-years old in January, so 2025 will be his age 31 season. He's now, thanks to the new contract, under contract through the end of his age 33 season. 

Since 2000, the NFL has seen 10 running backs rush for 1,000 yards or more in their age 31 season. Only one, Raheem Mostert in 2023, has come in the last decade. Only one additional season, Frank Gore in 2014, has come since 2009. Over that same period of time, just six running backs have rushed for double digit touchdowns in their age 31 season. Mostert is the only one to achieve the feat since 2009 as well. 

Henry's outlook for 2025 shouldn't feel too intimidating, however. He just posted the highest age 30 mark for rushing yards since 2000, besting Tiki Barber's 1,860 yards from 2005 and Henry's 5.9 yards per carry last season is the best of any qualifying running back in that time period for their age 30 season. 

But the cliff comes swiftly for runners. And the data for ball carriers in their age 32 season is much more intimidating. Only four running backs age 32 or older have surpassed 1,000 yards in a single season.

1. 2009 Ricky Williams, Miami Dolphins - 1,121 yards
2. 2018 Adrian Pederson, Washington - 1,042 yards
3. 2016 Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts - 1,025 yards
4. 2001 Emmitt Smith, Dallas Cowboys - 1,021 yards

In that same timeframe, the NFL has seen 15 running backs surpass 200 carries in an age 32 season or later. Two-thirds of them failed to average at least four yards per carry.

That historical cliff lingers for Henry in 2026. He’ll have guaranteed money on the table that season based on the announced terms of his new extension. Granted, the man they call King Henry is an exception to the rule in just about every way. He’s become a bit of an ageless wonder and, even at his age, continues to get stronger and stronger later into games and deeper into the season. In that sense, the contract extension is fitting — an exception to the rule contract for an exception to the rule player.

The marriage between Baltimore and Henry was an outlier in the first place, too. Paying running backs has been viewed as a blunder by many on the outside looking in, especially for an offense that has given Lamar Jackson just two 1,000 yard seasons from wide receivers during his tenure with the team. Both of those seasons, one from Hollywood Brown in 2021 and Zay Flowers this past season came from players on rookie contracts.

The construction of Baltimore’s offense makes it the perfect destination to fly against league norms. Even in Philadelphia, where Barkley’s contract has seismically shifted the ceiling of the running back market, there are two highly paid wide receivers in place. 

Baltimore’s unique approach to offensive football provides the Ravens with a unique environment to do what most wouldn’t be so bold to attempt. The quarterback is a force-multiplier on the ground and heavy formations mix with explosive speed to create a myriad of conflicts — despite the revamped passing offense from Todd Monken the past two years, Baltimore still ranks third in the NFL in 12, 13 and 21 personnel since the start of 2023.

Size and speed and power all in one, while getting all of those elements in the backfield simultaneously between Jackson and Henry, is a goldilocks situation. And that’s exactly what you need to scorn the league’s trends. It’s clearly working — and the Ravens are betting that Henry will continue to defy league history as an ageless juggernaut to help them maximize this current competitive window.