Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

Derrick Henry's 2024 free agency contract projection

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By Josh Queipo | Last updated Jan 12, 2024 6:36 AM ET

The NFL's regular season is over, which for most teams, means it's time to start figuring out plans for the offseason.

NFL free agency is a huge part of the process, and along with the NFL Draft, it has everyone preparing for what should be a very active couple of months.

We've officially come up with our own contract projections for the NFL's top free agents that include context behind each player's 2023 season, the likelihood of a franchise tag, the projection itself, and the first-year cap hit for a team that's “all-in” and is needing to reduce that first-year hit in order to maximize their cap dollars.

So, without further ado, let's check out the projection for Tennessee Titans running back, Derrick Henry.

Derrick Henry 2024 Contract Projection

Denny Simmons / The Tennessean-USA TODAY NETWORK

Henry continues to operate as one of the better running backs in the NFL, but there are cracks forming in the foundation. 2023 was the first time in his career where he failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry, although some of that was due to a poor offensive line in front of him. His yards after contact per carry and rate of carries that went for 10+ yards were both on the downswing.

Additionally, Tennessee made a concerted effort to get Tyjae Spears touches and Henry’s percent of team carries fell from 75% in 2022 to 67% in 2023 and it looks like he has certainly hit the back-nine of his career.

Henry will be entering his age 30 season which is where most running backs fall off - if they haven’t already. This, combined with the question still surrounding the true value of running backs in a league that is increasingly pass-first, are big factors moving forward.

There is still reason for hope that King Henry can continue to perform well enough as a feature back, though. His missed tackle forced rate is still hovering around 20% and he still ranks in the top-half of the league in most second-level measures of running back performance. A team could make a small-length bet on getting the last out of his amazing career.

Franchise Tag Likelihood: Low
2 yrs $20M, $10.0M APY, $12M fully GTD
Year One Cap Hit: $5 million

Be sure to check back in and around the site for more projections, as we will add more in the coming days and weeks.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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