Did Shane Steichen's play call end the Colts season?

With so many people criticizing that play call, I think it's important to look at the Colts final drive and, more importantly, that final play that would ultimately end their 2023 season. Are the critics right? Did Steichen make a massive mistake? 

Setting the Stage: 

The Colts were able to tie the game at 17 at the beginning of the fourth quarter after Matt Gay's 35-yard field goal attempt was good. The Texans began their next drive with 13:33 on the clock, and after a five-minute drive and multiple jaw-dropping plays from C.J. Stroud, RB Devin Singletary punched in a three-yard touchdown to give the Texans the lead. Kicker Ka'imi Fairburn would miss the extra point to keep the Texans lead to just six points. Down six, the Colts would begin their final offensive possession with 6:20 on the clock, knowing a touchdown could win them the game. 

During that Texans possession, Colts star RB Jonathan Taylor was in the locker room having an ankle injury looked at. And the devasting news would be released that he had been ruled as doubtful to return. But very quickly after that news was released, Taylor is seen running out of the Colts tunnel towards the sideline. He was then seen testing his ankle out with his helmet on, and it was apparent the RB was getting ready to head back in. And you wouldn't have guessed how much pain he was fighting through in that moment, so much so that a team source shared their thoughts on Taylor reentering the game with me this morning. 

"He's a warrior, an absolute warrior. Very few guys would be able to come back in that game, the definition of a Colt to me." 

The Colts didn't limit their star RB, though, as they ran eight plays before the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, and six were handoffs to Taylor. They continued leaning on Taylor after the two-minute warning as their next three plays were handoffs to Taylor to set up a 4th and 1. The Colts would call a timeout with 1:06 on the clock, and when they retook the field, to the surprise of everyone, they would be without Taylor. 

Their Final Play: 

The Colts came out in a three-WR set, with Alec Pierce and Josh Downs on the right side and Michael Pittman Jr. alone on the left. They had TE Mo Alie-Cox lined up just off the offensive line next to rookie Blake Freeland, who was filling in for Braden Smith, who was ruled out earlier in the game. And in the backfield was 2nd-year undrafted free agent RB Tyler Goodson to the left of Gardner Minshew, who was in the shotgun. 

Off the snap, Goodson goes to the flat and is by himself after a Texans LB decided to double Pittman Jr; Minshew looks to his left throws to Goodson, who can't come down with it, and the Colts turned it over on downs. 

The throw was certainly behind Goodson, who had to stop his momentum to get his hands on the ball. It does hit both hands, though, and if he catches it, he easily picks up the first down and extends the Colts drive inside the 15. A bad throw and a bad drop is the last offensive play in the minds of Colts fans for an entire offseason to reflect on. 

Was Steichen Wrong?:

Fans and media members have heavily criticized Steichen's play call since the end of the game. And while I personally would have given Jonathan Taylor the chance to make that play, there are multiple things to consider here. 

As I said above, Taylor was nowhere near 100%; he was ruled as doubtful to return by the medical staff for a reason. Through his determination and toughness, he returned to the game and still made a huge impact. Some have said it should have been a handoff to Taylor. I argue that the Texans were expecting the same thing and would have sold out to any run attempt to try and prevent Taylor from being the reason they lost that game. This makes me doubt that even if he is on the field, they probably don't play into what the Texans are expecting in that situation.

Before using their timeout, the Colts lined up to try and get the Texans to jump on 4th and 1 and give them the first down without running a play. But more importantly, Steichen was looking at the defense the Texans were in to make his preferred play call. He saw that the Texans were lining up in man coverage, so after the timeout, he sent Goodson in for Taylor. On this specific play call, the first read for Minshew is to hit the RB in this situation, and the RB this play was specifically designed for was Goodson, not Taylor. And his play call worked; Goodson was by himself after the LB doubled Pittman Jr., but a bad throw and a bad drop leads to the outrage we've seen towards the play call. 

Some believe the play call wasn't the issue, but the personal decision was. Not having Taylor on the field was a bold choice, one I'm not sure I'd make if I were Steichen. But, if Taylor is the RB there, I have a hard time thinking that the LB doubles PIttman Jr., as Taylor had been carving up the Texans all night. Like I said earlier, they would do everything in their power to make someone else other than Taylor beat them. The Colts elected to put their most trusted pass-catching back on their active roster on the field, and in the end, the play just wasn't executed by Minshew or Goodson. 

I understand fans being upset about their favorite team's season-ending. But the more I've watched this play back, I think it's one Steichen has no regrets on making, and he probably would call it again knowing how the defense played it, and I think 9/10 times Minshew and Goodson connect there for the first down and extend the Colts drive. Sadly, last night, we saw the 1/10 be the reality.