Dolphins Have Found Winning Formula, But ...

It's more than likely too late to get the team truly in the playoff picture, but the Miami Dolphins clearly have found a winning formula over the past month or so.

The team has won four of its last five games and will take a three-game winning streak to MetLife Stadium when they face the New York Jets on Sunday looking to improve on their 5-7 record.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that De'Von Achane playing running back at a level the Dolphins haven't gotten since the days of Ricky Williams is a big reason, but there's something even more specific at play here when it comes to the offense.

And it should be just as obvious what the key has been on defense.

Running the ball. Producing takeaways.

It's that simple, and the numbers are pretty startling when it comes to illustrating what we're talking about.

On offense, the key number is 30 rushing attempts.

The Dolphins have reached that mark five times this season and, boom, they're 5-0 in those games. Yep, every single win has come with Miami running the ball 30 times.

On defense/special teams, the key number is a simple two takeaways, though it's not quite as automatic as the rushing attempt threshhold.

The Dolphins have come up with two takeaways five times this season and their record in those games is 4-1, the one loss coming against the Carolina Panthers. Conversely, the only game the Dolphins have won this season without getting at least two takeaways was the 34-10 dismantling of the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8.

Overall, the Dolphins have produced 14 takeaways on the season, with half of those coming in the past three games in the victories against the Buffalo Bills, Washington Commanders and New Orleans Saints.

And there's another huge factor common to Dolphins success: playing with the lead.

In their five wins, the Dolphins have trailed exactly once — against Washington when they were down 13-6 heading into the fourth quarter.

HOW FAR CAN THIS FORMULA GO?

The Dolphins' current winning streak is impressive because it came from a team that was 2-7 and had just parted ways with GM Chris Grier — and, no, his firing isn't the reason Miami suddenly started winning.

But it's a very fine line the Dolphins have been riding the past couple of weeks because it's not unfair to suggest they easily could have lost against both Washington and New Orleans. And those teams are a combined 5-19.

Yes, Washington gave Denver all it could handle Sunday night, but that game was at Washington, not on a neutral field, and the Commanders also had Terry McLaurin and Daron Payne in the lineup against the Broncos after they missed the Miami game — and those are among Washington's few difference-makers.

While the Buffalo win most certainly was impressive, there was nothing over the past two games to suggest that three-game winning streak has much of a chance to get much longer.

What would have helped would have been the kind of definitive win against a bad team that the New England Patriots produced against the New York Giants on Monday night, a 33-15 decision that never was in doubt.

Why the Dolphins haven't been able to get there pretty much is the result of a passing game that's just not very effective these days.

And, yes, it starts with Tua Tagovailoa.

It figured all along that the passing game would suffer after Tyreek Hill was lost to that devastating knee injury, but there still have been bright moments since that September 30, just not nearly enough.

The Dolphins turned to a run-centric approach on offense out of necessity after Darren Waller landed on IR before the Atlanta game, and the results have been positive but there will come a point — probably sooner rather than later — where Miami simply will need more from the passing game.

Miami is on a great run (pun intended) with the running game with three straight games not only with 30+ attempts, but just as importantly 160 rushing yards, and it's impossible (or should) to maintain that kind of production over the final five weeks of the regular season.

When that running game is slowed, the Dolphins will need for Tagovailoa to deliver.

Over the past seven games, his passer rating is an unsightly 74.4, and that's just flat-out not good enough — for any quarterback, let alone one with the kind of contract Tagovailoa has.

Waller getting back into physical shape after making his return against New Orleans following a four-game absence should help, and it better because not only will the running game be slowed at some point, but the takeaways also might not keep coming the way they have.

This streak of three games with at least two takeaways is the team's longest since 2020 when the Dolphins did it four straight games.

So, yeah, the passing game will need a resurgence down the stretch if the Dolphins are to win more games than not in the final month.

It doesn't need to be back to 2022 and 2023 levels because those days are gone, but it certainly needs to be better than it's been the past few weeks.