Dolphins head to Cleveland in first of two road games to close regular season

The Miami Dolphins continue their quest to sneak into the postseason with a Week 17 road game at the Cleveland Browns. Following Miami’s victory over the San Francisco 49’ers last week, as well as certain outcomes around the league, the Dolphins’ playoff chances are 6%. Regardless of probabilities, Miami must win on the road the next two weeks to even have a slim shot.

In a game that was flexed out of primetime and is now a 4:05 pm start, the temperature should be tolerable, and Miami looks to luck out weather-wise, relatively speaking, in a game that could lack elements normally associated with late-December football with lake effect potential.

Weather aside, the Dolphins enter the matchup 7-8 and face a 3-12 Browns team just looking to get through with the season. In another intangible to the game, the Browns are currently in the top-5 of the NFL Draft and tied with four other franchises with three wins. A top-2 pick could be in reach for Cleveland, so a loss could even be more helpful.

The Dolphins offense will face the NFL’s 19th-ranked defense with Cleveland allowing 339.9 total yards per game. On the opposite side, the Miami defensive unit will see the Browns' third-string quarterback this season in Dorian Thompson-Robinson and a 25th-ranked total offense. Cleveland will be without injured running back Nick Chubb, but Miami must account for wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, who is having a great season in his first with Cleveland.

The Dolphins’ defense should feast against a Browns team last in the league in sacks allowed at 63 on the season. The Browns are also the league’s 31st-ranked scoring offense with just 16.3 points per game. Additionally, the Browns are worst in the NFL in third-down offense, converting just 28.4% of the time.

The table is set for Miami’s defensive unit to get to Thompson-Robinson, as tackle Zach Sieler and edge rusher Chop Robinson have combined for seven sacks in the last three games. Sieler leads the team with 8.5, and closing in on his own franchise record for defensive tackles of 10, set last season. Robinson has six sacks with a shot at Jaelan Phillips’ team rookie record of 8.5 from 2021.

Offensively for Miami, Tua Tagovailoa rebounded from a tough game in Houston and paced the Dolphins with help from De’Von Achane against the Niners. Achane became the franchise leader in running back receptions at 76, moving ahead of Terry Kirby’s 1993 mark of 75. Also, tight end Jonnu Smith became the Dolphins’ single-season record holder in receptions as well as receiving yards for a tight end. Smith heads into Cleveland needing one touchdown to tie Miami’s tight end season mark of seven, held by Keith Jackson from 1994 and Anthony Fasano in 2008.

Although dropping a few must-have touchdown targets, Tyreek Hill Hill did find the endzone last week against San Francisco. He was held to just three catches for 29 yards on seven targets. Stepping up in the wide receiver room, and in Jaylen Waddle’s absence with a knee injury, rookie Malik Washington once again played a solid overall game.

Recently integrated into the passing game more over the last few weeks, Washington has become a bonafide threat as a returner as well as receiver, making three catches for 29 yards in Week 16.

The Dolphins offense will have to account for Browns’ defensive superstar, Myles Garrett, who has 12 sacks this season and 100.5 on his career. Miami is 15th in the league in sacks allowed, and Garrett is a guy who can get multiple sacks in a heartbeat. Another item of note, the Browns have not been able to protect the ball, nor take it away this season. They are 28th in takeaways and 31st in giveaways. Miami is 26th in takeaways and 13th in giveaways.

From a special teams standpoint, Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders is on fire. He has connected on 23 straight field goals, the longest streak in team history. The franchise leader in field goal percentage, Sanders won last week’s AFC Special Teams Player of the Week after a 5/5 performance, and is the reigning conference Special Teams Player of the Month at the phase. He leads the NFL in points since Week 8. Credit should also be given to punter Jake Bailey, who is having a fine 2024 season. His 41.3 net punting average is second in team history, behind Brandon Fields with 42.4 in 2013.

The Dolphins could very well dominate the Browns and hope to continue momentum, get some assistance, and look to stay alive for a post-Christmas post-season miracle.