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Dolphins Playoff Chances: Scenarios for How Miami Makes NFL Postseason

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Chris Phelps | Last updated Jan 5, 2025 1:47 PM ET

The Miami Dolphins will face Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in the week 18 season finale, and there is a lot on the line.

The Dolphins are just one of three teams in the AFC that have a chance to secure the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs, which also includes the Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

But how does Miami get in?

Well, Mike McDaniel and company only have one scenario where they can earn a spot in the postseason, and they need two things to happen. First, the Dolphins have to defeat the 4-12 Jets. This doesn't necessarily seem like a difficult task, given New York's struggles this season. However, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will likely not play due to a hip injury, giving the Jets a major advantage.

Next, the Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Denver. This sounds like it could be a challenge, given the Chief's recent history and 15-1 season. Unfortunately for Miami, with Kansas City already securing the No. 1 seed, they will likely be resting many starters, including Patrick Mahomes.

Updated Dolphins playoff path:

✅W at CLE
◾️ W at NYJ
✅DEN loss at CIN
◾️ DEN loss at KC
✅IND loss at NYG or JAX pic.twitter.com/nNirUEWsLL
— Dolphins Muse (@Dolphins_Muse) December 30, 2024

If the Dolphins do end up earning a spot in the playoffs, they can only earn the No. 7 seed and would be facing the No. 2 seed Buffalo Bills in next weekend's Wild Card round. But Tagovailoa could miss the first round as well with his injury, which would leave backup quarterback Tyler Huntley running the show.

According to The Athletic's NFL playoff projections, the Dolphins have the second-highest chance to make the postseason among the three eligible AFC teams, sitting at 21%. The Broncos (72%) have the highest, and the Bengals (7%) have the lowest.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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