Don’t Drop Ball on This Surprising Packers-Vikings Stat

Dropped passes could play a huge role in Sunday’s NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings.

Just not in the way you think.

While dropped passes plagued the Jordan Love-led Packers offense in last week’s victory over the New York Giants, that was more of an outlier performance.

Meanwhile, no starting quarterback has been plagued by more dropped passes than the Vikings’ J.J. McCarthy, who is surrounded by skill-position players that most observers would judge to be better than Love’s supporting cast.

According to Pro Football Focus, 35 quarterbacks have dropped back to pass at least 150 times. McCarthy’s receivers have dropped 14.9 percent of their targets, by far the worst rate in the NFL. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence is a distant second at 11.4 percent. They are two of only three quarterbacks hurt by a double-digit drop percentage.

Love, meanwhile, is right about in the middle of the pack at 6.3 percent. That’s the 15th-highest drop rate and barely above the league median of 6.0 percent.

Against the Giants, PFF judged Green Bay’s pass-catchers to have dropped four passes: two for Romeo Doubs, one for Dontayvion Wicks and one for Luke Musgrave.

The wind was no excuse, coach Matt LaFleur said.

“Bottom line is, you got to try to focus through the catch,” LaFleur said. “And, unfortunately, we had far too many drops. That’s just the way it was and, trust me, we’ll be working hard at it not to allow that to happen again.”

LaFleur’s hope is to nip it in the bud. As former Packers special teams coordinator Ron Zook liked to say, it’s not a problem until it’s a problem and then it’s a big problem.

Drops have not been a big problem this season. In fact, that was by far the worst day of the season.

The Packers were guilty of two drops the week before against the Eagles and two drops in the tie at Dallas. Every other game was one or zero drops, according to PFF. By percentage, 23.5 percent of Love’s passes were dropped against the Giants. That’s the only game this season at 10-plus percent.

Remember, McCarthy’s has been saddled with 14.9 percent for the season. So, nobody was truly concerned headed into the stretch run.

Especially when two of the drops were by the sure-handed Doubs, who had only two drops before facing the Giants.

“It was one of those things, all year we’ve been catching the ball,” passing game coordinator Jason Vrable said on Thursday. “Obviously we can always be better, and we have had drops, but we’ve been pretty solid. You always got to look at your process. Like, did something slip in the process?

“I would say with Romeo, gameday when we have a walk-through, everybody breaks and he goes over to the JUGS and catches 150 balls on the JUGS. He’s the first one with Jordan at practice every single day. His routine is better than any pro I’ve ever been around. Why he dropped the ball? He took his eyes off it on the first one. It’s all about don’t rush the success, just be good.”

That’s why LaFleur said his team would be “working hard” this week so bad habits don’t begin to form that could turn a strength into a weakness at the worst possible time of the season.

“There’s nothing that chaps my ass more when somebody yells at a player ‘catch the ball,’” LaFleur said. “Like, no, give him a coaching point. It’s one thing if you’re using poor technique when catching a ball in regards to you’re not being aggressive with your hands, you’re letting it cross your eyes, you’re letting it get into your body.

“It’s another thing when you’re aggressively attacking the ball. When I see guys that are kind of passive and allow it to get in their body, then you go coach them up and they’ve got to show that improvement. You’ll never hear me say anything to a player out on the practice field, as long as they’re using that aggressive mindset and going to attack the football. It’s when they allow it to get into their body, even when they catch it, we will as a staff remind the guys, ‘Hey, go attack that ball.’”

That mentality starts on the practice field with attacking the ball and securing the catch before trying to make something happen. Perhaps the wind was the big factor last week. Maybe it was players pressing after back-to-back losses. Or maybe it was just one of those weeks.

“Let the plays happen naturally,” Vrable said. “You ran a great route, the route’s there and he took his eyes off it, right? All year he's fundamentally been sound. Eyes to the catch, aggressive hands, hands in front, and for whatever reason this game [he had a couple drops].

“If I was mad about his process and he wasn’t working hard enough, I’d be upset with Rome. But I believe in Rome. Ball’s thrown to him 100 times, he’s going to catch that ball 99 times out of 100 in a game and with confidence.”

During what’s been an inconsistent season on offense, catching the ball has been one area of growth. Last year, of 36 quarterbacks with at least 270 dropbacks, Love was hindered by a drop rate of 8.2 percent, the sixth-worst in the league. So, he’s getting a lot more help from his friends compared to last year.

“Dropped pass or things like that, you’ve just got to play that next play,” Love said when talking about Musgrave this week. “I think building guys up and always giving guys confidence is always the way to go, no matter who it is.”

Drops were a five-alarm fire that never got extinguished last season. Dontayvion Wicks (17.0 percent) and Jayden Reed (15.4 percent) were among the worst offenders in the NFL. Doubs dropped a disappointing 9.8 percent. Among the regular receivers, Christian Watson was the best at a good-but-not-great 6.5 percent.

This year, the drop rates for the receivers are 14.3 percent for Wicks, 7.1 percent for Doubs and 0.0 percent for Watson and Matthew Golden.

“If the process is wrong, then I have a big issue if guys aren’t working hard enough,” Vrable said. “Obviously, we’ve got to be better. Rome was as disappointed as anybody. He’s caught the ball pretty strong this year. Is there an easy solution? Yeah, your process, and if you’re great and you’re around the ball all the time and you do what you’re supposed to do and you’re confident, usually the results are you’re going to catch the football.”