Dougherty's NFL Week 4 'Beat the Line' picks

Week 3 was the perfect example of why we do this "Beat the Line" series. We created closing line value on all three bets we gave out last Monday, and we nearly won our New Orleans Saints +2.5 bet when they closed -2.5 before kickoff. It was still a 2-1 week against the spread

Season record: 3-2-1 ATS, 4-1-1 CLV

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m. ET
The Eagles knocked off the Saints in thrilling fashion in Week 3, but they left New Orleans with more than a few losses. Lane Johnson, DeVonta Smith, Mekhi Becton and Britain Covey all left the game with injuries, and A.J. Brown might not be able to return next week with his hamstring injury. It's possible Jalen Hurts' receiving corps for Week 4 could be made up of Jahan Dotson, Johnny Wilson and Parris Campbell, while the right side of the offensive line might be missing both starters. 

This could be a repeat from last week with the spread dropping as more injury news comes out from Philadelphia. Get this bet in while it's still available. The bet to make: Buccaneers +2.5 (-110 FanDuel)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m. ET
This total is too high based on how Pittsburgh has played to start the season. The Steelers defense looks like the best unit in the NFL, as it ranks first in points allowed per game (8.7) and yards allowed per game (229.7) through three games. Pittsburgh's games have finished with 28, 19 and 30 points so far. 

The Steelers are content with playing excellent defense, limiting possessions and doing just enough on offense to get the job done. Justin Fields' only job is to take care of the ball. He doesn't need to create explosive plays for this team to win, so the Steelers are going to keep mucking up games and trying to win ugly. Anthony Richardson could be in for a long day against the best defense he'll face all year. The bet to make: Under 40 (-110 DraftKings)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Sunday, Sept. 29, 1 p.m. ET
If you followed this series last season, you know we like targeting teams about to play on Monday Night Football. This way, we can get ahead of oddsmakers adding more data points to their models and adjusting spreads and totals based on MNF results. We expect the Jaguars to put up a valiant fight against the Buffalo Bills and possibly win the game outright. If that does transpire, this spread against the Texans will finish closer to +3. 

Houston hasn't looked impressive to start the season. The Texans just got blown out by the Minnesota Vikings, and they beat the Colts and Chicago Bears by one possession despite dominating the stat sheet in both games. The offensive line isn't getting it done for C.J. Stroud, and the Jaguars have the horses on the defensive line to take advantage. The bet to make: Jaguars +4.5 (-110 DK)