Draft or Pass: What to do about Jonathan Taylor and other mid-round RBs in fantasy football

The 2023 NFL preseason is officially in the books, and fantasy football drafts are in full swing. As the wide receiver position continues to grow in importance, more fantasy managers are opting to refrain from selecting running backs until later in their drafts, which could be a risky move.

With that, let's look at some running backs being drafted in the middle rounds and determine whether you should think twice about picking them up.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts (ESPN ADP: 50.5)

Condolences to whoever drafted Taylor in the third round in anticipation of a trade to Miami. By now, it's well known that the 24-year-old is staying in Indianapolis and will remain on the PUP list, forcing him to miss at least the first four games of the season. The development tanked Taylor's fantasy value but it's not completely catastrophic if you have yet to draft.

Although Taylor appears uninterested in playing for the Colts, he must be on the active roster for six games if he wants to be eligible for free agency next offseason. Taylor will be credited for the four games he's on the PUP list, so he must play at least two games, or he'll be under Indianapolis' control for next season.

Even so, the possibility of Taylor playing 13 games can't be ruled out, whether that be for the Colts or another team since he can still be traded.  

The ambiguity of Taylor's situation has dropped him to the RB16 in ESPN's rankings, and he could fall as far as the seventh round in drafts. It's unlikely any other player being drafted in the sixth and seventh rounds has the same level of upside as Taylor. We want as much upside on our roster as possible, so if you have a well-rounded roster, the 2021 rushing champ could be a league-winning selection, especially if he's traded midseason.

Verdict: DRAFT (but at the right price)

Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 64.7)

Sanders enjoyed a career year in 2022, rushing for the fifth-most yards in the NFL (1,269) to go along with 11 touchdowns en route to an RB15 finish in PPR scoring formats. However, that was behind the Eagles' top-ranked offensive line, and now Sanders is relying on a significantly inferior unit in Carolina to help him succeed.

On the surface, this doesn't seem like an ideal scenario, though there are still some positive factors that give Sanders the potential to produce another solid fantasy season.

When we get further into drafts, it's not an awful idea to follow the money dished out in free agency, as it's a sign of how a team plans to utilize a player. Sanders signed a four-year, $25.4 million deal with Carolina this offseason, which is a massive deal for running backs in today's NFL.

Clearly, Carolina plans to get its money's worth, meaning Sanders should receive a lot of touches, and for fantasy running backs, there are few factors more important to success than volume.

While we don't know how rookie quarterback Bryce Young will fare in the pros, he showed a willingness to checkdown to his tailback at Alabama, as Jahmyr Gibbs led the Crimson Tide in receptions last season (44). Considering how the NFL's game is played at a much faster pace than college, the meticulous Young will likely lean on Sanders in the passing game to limit forced throws and turnovers, which boosts the running back’s value.

Verdict: DRAFT

James Cook, Buffalo Bills (ADP: 69.6)

Cook checks many of the boxes for what you want in a fantasy running back. The 2022 second-round pick showed promise as a rookie, has pass-catching upside, plays on an explosive offense and is getting an expanded role this season. 

Yet, there are still plenty of concerns about drafting Cook, ESPN’s RB24. Not only is quarterback Josh Allen a threat to steal rushing touchdowns from the 190-pound Cook, but Buffalo signed bruising backs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray, who could both receive goal-line carries. In fact, Harris has already seized a goal-line carry from Cook during his preseason debut against Chicago, which resulted in a touchdown. 

Additionally, if we look at how sportsbooks view Cook, he seems like an automatic fade at his current price. According to OddsChecker, Cook's only projected for 650.5 rushing yards and 3.5 touchdowns. For comparison, oddsmakers predict Green Bay's AJ Dillon, the RB33 on ESPN, to rush for 700.5 yards and 6.5 touchdowns.

Verdict: PASS