Eight Dallas Cowboys starters who might be off the team in 2024

• Return likelihood: High
• A to Z Sports' contract projection: 2 yrs, $25M, $12.5M APY, $15M GTD

Tyron Smith is hitting free agency with no intentions to retire. Naturally, his preferred destination should be the one franchise he's played for in a 13-year Hall of Fame career.  

But don't be fooled. While the Cowboys remain he's most likely landing spot, Smith won't be settling for another deal as heavily incentivized as the one Dallas offered him in 2023 in what amounted to a pay cut with a chance to win his money back. Smith had a second-team All-Pro year which will allow him to be more demanding as the top OT available entering free agency. 

• Return likelihood: Medium
• A to Z Sports' contract projection: 1 yr $8.5M, $8.5M APY, $8.5M fully GTD

Clearly, a former Defensive Player of the Year and two-time All-Pro is somebody you want back on your team. However, this one will likely come down to Gilmore testing the market before making a final decision. Even with an offseason shoulder surgery, the reality is Gilmore has proven he can still play at a high level over the last couple of years.

Mike Zimmer's comments in the past make it sound like he wants Gilmore back, which should be an encouraging sign for Cowboys Nation. Putting him down as a "medium" because I expect Gilly to test his market and go to the highest bidder.  

• Return likelihood: Low
• A to Z Sports' contract projection: 3 yrs $22.5M, $7.50M APY, $13M fully GTD

The more I study the Tony Pollard situation, the more I feel inclined to say he'll be out of the picture in Dallas. The Cowboys need to make the most out of what  is shaping up to be a flooded running back market in free agency and a rookie class that should provide many options at the position in Day 2 and Day 3. 

The only way I envision Pollard sticking around for another year is if he settles for a significantly lower deal than expected, which could totally happen given the supply and demand dynamics about to take place in the position. Keep in mind, the Cowboys didn't exactly get the every-down-back production from Pollard they might've been hoping for last season, even if it wasn't all the running back's fault. 

• Return likelihood: Medium

The Cowboys should be looking into possibly upgrading at center in the NFL Draft but that would be tough to do if they pay Tyler Biadasz in March. As a result, the front office will tip its hand into how aggressive they really intend to be this offseason.

Do they risk losing Biadasz for a chance at getting their guy at 24th overall in April? Or will they move forward with Biadasz for their all-in year? This is absolutely one of the most intriguing decisions they have to make next month. 

Return likelihood: Low

In contrast to every other player on the list, Gallup is not a pending free agent for the Cowboys. However, he's a prime candidate to be a cap casualty. Even though he started 13 games last season, Gallup averaged a 42% snap count from Week 8 on, when he was benched in the second half of the Cowboys' loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. 

That combined with Gallup's $8.5M salary for 2023 will likely lead to the front office turning the page. For it to make financial sense, expect the Cowboys to designate him as a post-June 1st release, which would open up $9.5M in June, per Over the Cap. 

• Return likelihood: Low
• A to Z Sports' contract projection: 2 years, $6M, $3.0M APY, $2M GTD

With Dan Quinn out as defensive coordinator of the Cowboys, expect Kearse to follow suit. Quinn carved out a hybrid role for Kearse, who perfectly blurred the line between linebacker and safety in 2021.

Since then, his career has been in a steady decline, as I detailed in a recent post on his pending free agency:

The 30-year-old safety is set to hit free agency and his decline can be seen both on film and in the numbers. Kearse went from owning the second best PFF coverage grade on the team in 2021 to being 25th last season while allowing a catch in 81% of targets. His missed tackle percentage skyrocketed from 4.1% to 10.7%. More than double!

Return Likelihood: Medium

Lewis played great football down the stretch in the slot and showed that he can still be a solid player in the most difficult position in football. Ideally, the Cowboys likely want DaRon Bland to man such a spot but if they can't get Gilmore back, Lewis should be re-signed for a low-tier deal. 

Among the 75 cornerbacks with the most snaps, Lewis ranked 13th-best in missed tackle percentage, per PFF. In several spots, particularly late in the year, he came up with huge TFLs in high-stakes scenarios like near the goal line.

• Return Likelihood: High

Circumstances make it almost a fact that Hankins will be back for the 2024 NFL season. 

1. The Cowboys have a need at nose tackle.
2. Hankins has played the position well, even if the team still needs an upgrade.
3. Hankins would require an inexpensive one-year contract.

To make things even better, Hankins has gone on record suggesting the Cowboys seem interested in his return.