ESPN analyst drops bold take about the Packers that ignores what's clearly happened each of the last two seasons in Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers made the playoffs in each of the past two years with the same core group that is on the roster right now. In each of 2023 and 2024, the Packers had the youngest roster in football, Jordan Love at quarterback, and mostly the same pieces—last year, the team got better with some impactful additions, like Xavier McKinney and Josh Jacobs, plus the draft picks. But you get the point.

Despite all that, ESPN's Ben Solak is ready to project a regression from Green Bay in 2025. He wrote a piece with 100 nuggets as a reference to us being 100 days away from the regular season, and one of his bold predictions is that the Packers won't make the postseason.

And I know, the name of the section is "10 bold predictions that you shouldn't aggregate -- unless they end up being correct," but we will aggregate that anyway because it's valid to understand his argument and confront it with what happened.

"The Packers will miss the playoffs. I think two of the biggest non-negotiables for playoff teams are having a pass rush and a dominant receiver. The Packers definitely don't have the first and still might not have the second, even after drafting Matthew Golden in Round 1. They were plus-12 in turnover differential last season, which ranked third in the NFL, but that tends not to be a sticky number. (I am also looking at the plus-24 Bills with supreme suspicion.)"

Don't get me wrong here, it's absolutely feasible that the Packers end up missing the playoffs. After all, Green Bay does lack blue-chip talent and plays an extremely tough division. It wouldn't be absurd to think that the Packers might be the fourth team in the NFC North—nor that they could win it, because the four teams are good.

The problem here is the reasoning, and it's a clearly flawed premise. Sure, ideally every NFL team would want a strong pass rush and a dominant receiver. But what's the big difference compared to what the Packers had in each of the last two years?

If we go back a year or two, the only pieces the Packers had that they won't have for much or the entire 2025 season are edge rusher Preston Smith, who wasn't having a big impact anyway (so much so that he is still a free agent) and wide receiver Christian Watson, who will return at some point.

They lacked reinforcements at the edge position, thinking that defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington can extract more out of what they already have. It's reasonable to have concerns with this plan, but it's mostly the same group that made the playoffs, and the same defense that was seventh in DVOA under Jeff Hafley.

On offense, Matt LaFleur has given clear indications that he can build an explosive offense without a bona fide WR1. Last year, the Packers were third in offensive DVOA, and now they have added Matthew Golden and Savion Williams.

Yes, the Packers might miss the playoffs. To some degree, the lack of top talent at premium positions is impactful.

But based on what happened in each of the last two seasons, it's hard to use those arguments to say that this time everything will finally fall apart.