ESPN analyst predicts small boost to Caleb Williams stats in 2025. Will it be enough?

ESPN's Mike Clay released his annual projection guide for each team and every player, and Bears fans may not like what he sees coming for Williams.

Clay projects that Williams will play just 15 games this year and finish with 3,439 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. On the ground, he adds 394 rushing yards, 1 touchdown, and reduces his sacks to just 38.

At first glance, this looks bad, but remember that these are projections based on Williams playing 15 games. On a per-game average, his yards and touchdowns would slightly increase. The increase in interceptions isn't great, but if we've learned anything over the past few years, it's that a few turnovers are okay as long as there are more explosive plays happening.

The big takeaway for me is the sack total. Going from 68 sacks to just 38 (or about 43 based on a 17-game season) would be a big improvement. Still not great, but closer to the middle of the pack by NFL standards.

Williams can't afford the luxury of taking small steps

I want to reiterate that, on a per-game average, these numbers represent a slight improvement for Williams. Unfortunately, gradual development is not a luxury he can afford.

Yes, every player still needs to prove themselves on the field, but when you look at this roster on paper, it's head and shoulders above what most NFL quarterbacks get to work with on both sides of the ball.

Most importantly, the Bears hired Ben Johnson as their head coach. This is not taking a flyer on a one-hit wonder and non-playcaller like Matt Nagy was. Nor is it the befuddling choice to hire a defensive coordinator from Indianpolis to mentor an exciting young quarterback. Johnson was the best head coaching candidate by a country mile, and his offense that he designs and calls in-game was among the league's best for three years straight.

Big investments call for big returns

Baby steps are not enough in this situation. It may be unfair, but that's life as an NFL quarterback. The Bears have invested heavily in Williams, and they will expect an immediate return on investment. Williams needs to show dramatic improvement in 2025 and probably no later than Week 6.

What exactly that looks like could be anyone's guess, but to affix a number to it, he needs to either become Chicago's first 4,000-yard and 30-touchdown passer or get real darn close.

And for what it's worth, I have full confidence in Williams to not just meet these standards but end up making them look much too lenient. Williams has all the talent in the world and would have been a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year had he not landed with a coaching staff that was grossly negligent in his development.

Williams' destiny as a franchise-changing quarterback is in his own hands. It's up to him now to seize it.