ESPN Analytics Predicts Outcome of Battle Line Rivalry Game

Originally posted on Arkansas Razorbacks on SI
By Jacob Davis | Last updated Nov 29, 2024 5:25 PM ET

Since Arkansas and Missouri began playing each other in 1906, the series has never been close to even.

The Razorbacks have never won on the road in Columbia either which might be a factor in ESPN's analytics model only giving them a 33% chance of pulling a road upset of No. 23 Missouri. Arkansas' previous two trips resulted in a pair of two-point losses, including a 2020 game which Arkansas led with 29 seconds left before a 32-yard field goal by Harrison Mevis secured a Tigers win.

Overall, Missouri holds an 11-4 series lead over Arkansas, including an 8-2 mark since 2014 when the rivalry began. The Razorbacks' last victory against Missouri came in 2021 with a decisive 34-17 victory.

Arkansas alum David Bazzel created the Battle Line Trophy in 2014 that is 4-foot-4, 180 pound silver cutout of the states with a line in the middle which represents the border. Whichever school wins the game each season gets to put its primary colored bar in the slot.

Missouri is in search of its ninth win of the season which will mean its most wins in a two-year span since 2013-14 when the Tigers went to two consecutive SEC championship games. The Razorbacks look to continue distancing themselves from last year's disastrous 4-8 season to notch a second win over a ranked opponent this season.

Hogs' Bowl Outlook

There are a couple of bowl destinations in play for the Razorbacks based on whether they win or lose Saturday. Should Arkansas defeat Missouri, the bowl tier could improve to the Tax Act Texas Bowl in Houston Dec. 28 against a representative from the Big 12.

The AutoZone Liberty Bowl could also be in play in Memphis against another Big 12 opponent which would also take place Dec. 28. The Razorbacks have previously played across the border three times in 2009, 2016 and 2022.

If Arkansas falls to 6-6 with a loss, its possible that trip to its first TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl against an American Athletic Conference opponent Dec. 27. Should Arkansas not be selected to travel to Alabama, it could play another AAC team in the Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa Dec. 23.