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ESPN Computer Predicts Winner Of Chiefs-Bills

Originally posted on The Spun | By Matt Hladik | Last updated Jan 20, 2025 10:02 AM ET

This year's AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills has the makings of a classic.

Kansas City and Buffalo have met eight times in the last five seasons, including three times in the playoffs. The series is tied 4-4 in that span, but while the Bills are 4-1 against KC in the regular season, the Chiefs have won all three postseason matchups, including in last year's Divisional Round. After Kansas City beat Houston and Buffalo got past Baltimore over the weekend, the stage was set for another confrontation.

The main storyline of this game will be the quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen might be the two best in the game, and their play will likely determine who moves on to Super Bowl 59.

This morning, ESPN's Matchup Predictor unveiled an early pick for the game. According to the computer model, Buffalo has a 54.6% chance of winning on the road compared to Kansas City's 45.4% odds.

Considering the Chiefs have been installed as one-point favorites and have won the last two Super Bowls, this would be considered a mild upset.

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - DECEMBER 10: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs reacts with Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills after the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on December 10, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Kansas City lost only two games all season, and in one of them, the regular season finale, the Chiefs rested most of their key players.

The only team to beat Kansas City at full strength this year? The Bills back in Week 11.

"We're excited. [There's] a lot of pride in that locker room. We don't listen to the outside noise," Allen said after Sunday's win. "Everyone was saying this and that about us. Our guys continue to work hard. We are internally driven."

While Kansas City has played in four of the last five Super Bowls, winning three, Buffalo has not made it to the biggest stage since the 1993 season. We'll see if they can break that drought on Sunday.

The AFC Championship Game will kick off at 6:30 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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