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ESPN Computer Predicts Winner Of Chiefs vs. Eagles Rematch

Originally posted on The Spun | By Tzvi Machlin | Last updated Sep 11, 2025 11:16 PM ET

In one of the most-anticipated games of the NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Philadelphia Eagles in a Super Bowl LIX rematch.

Kansas City started the season poorly, losing by one score to the rival Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil last week. Injuries plagued the team and their run game was non-existent, forcing star QB Patrick Mahomes to try in vain to carry the team to victory. But Arrowhead Stadium is where the Chiefs are strongest and perhaps even the vaunted Eagles will struggle against them there.

Speaking of the Eagles, they looked solid against the Dallas Cowboys in their season-opening win. While they didn't exactly blow the Cowboys away with their performance, they played efficiently in a 24-20 win. Reigning Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts went 19 of 23 for 152 yards and no TDs through the air, but had 62 yards and two TDs on the ground.

While the game won't be in primetime, it will be nationally televised on FOX. But who will win?

ESPN's Analytics computer model analyzed the game and revealed its answer in its Matchup Predictor.

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - FEBRUARY 09: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs is sacked by Josh Sweat #19 and Jalyx Hunt #58 of the Philadelphia Eagles in the second quarter during Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome on February 09, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)Jamie Squire/Getty Images

ESPN’s computer model believes that the game will be close.

The computer model gives the Chiefs a 52.5-percent percent chance to win the Sunday afternoon game. The visiting Eagles have a 47.1-percent chance to win. As always, there is a 0.4% chance that it ends in a tie.

This could be a make-or-break game for the Chiefs. Kansas City have not started a season 0-2 in the entirety of the Patrick Mahomes era and have not gone 0-2 in a season since 2014. The Chiefs went on to miss the playoffs that season.

Suffice it to say, if the Chiefs don't beat the Eagles this Sunday there will be serious concern if the Chiefs miss the playoffs entirely.

As for the Eagles, they're basically playing with house money. They're practically even with the Chiefs on odds in major sports books. While Eagles fans likely expect a win in Arrowhead, they probably won't be torn up about it too much if they lose to one of the AFC's best teams on the road. Not to mention, a loss to the Chiefs wouldn't have much of an impact on any potential playoff tiebreakers.

The game will be played at 4:25 p.m. ET and will air nationally on FOX.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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