ESPN dooms the Browns' season before it even begins

With the busiest part of free agency and the NFL Draft already complete, teams have a pretty good idea of what players they will be deciding from to make their 53-man roster. Additionally, the 2025 schedule has already been revealed, so every franchise knows when they’ll be playing what team. With all of those factors settled, analysts have started making their predictions and projections for the 2025 season.

Unsurprisingly, early projections haven’t been kind to the Cleveland Browns. ESPN’s Seth Walder recently released a piece detailing the projections of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), highlighting the teams with the best chance to win the Super Bowl and the best chance to get the No. 1 pick.

The Browns are the team most likely to land the No. 1 pick in the 2026 Draft, with a 13% shot. They also have the lowest odds to win the Super Bowl, at just 0.1%.

The Browns are the most likely team to end the season holding the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, with a 13% shot. Much of that is due to a quarterback room comprised of Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and a harder-than-average schedule.Seth Walder (ESPN)

Browns have the best odds of landing the No. 1 pick in 2026 Draft

This shouldn’t come as a surprise, because Cleveland hasn’t given any models a reason to believe in it yet. Coming off a 3-14 season, the Browns have found themselves in the spotlight because of their crowded quarterback room that includes two rookies, with one being Shedeur Sanders. Still, analysts believe the Browns will be in position to pick another quarterback at the top of the draft next season.

However, projections are just that, projections. Things still have to play out on the field, and with the NFL, anything can happen. This time last year, Cleveland wasn’t even in the top 10 of teams likely to land the No. 1 pick. Instead, franchises like the Denver Broncos (3), Washington Commanders (5), and Minnesota Vikings (7) were all in the top 10. However, they all won a double-digit number of games and made the playoffs, while the Browns ended up with the No. 2 overall pick.

Cleveland will have to go out each week and prove ESPN’s model wrong. If not, the Browns will be back at the top of the draft, and there could be a ton of change in Cleveland from the top down.

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