ESPN grades the Falcons trade of Jessie Bates III

The Falcons made the difficult but necessary decision to trade Jessie Bates III yesterday, acquiring a 2027 second-round pick and a 2028 fifth-round pick in the process.

It’s a move that undoubtedly hurts Atlanta’s chances of ending a postseason drought dating back to the 2017 season. But at 3-6, with no real chance of contending even if they somehow win the atrocious NFC South, Matt Ryan and Ian Cunningham did the right thing by prioritizing the future — and ESPN agrees, giving the Falcons a B+ for the trade.

“Atlanta was somewhat boxed in to making a Bates deal because it has so much cap space — more than $110 million in 2027, per OverTheCap.com,” Seth Walder writes. “That means they very likely will be active in free agency and therefore would have a major risk of not getting anything back for Bates if they held him through the end of the year, as acquired free agents cancel out lost free agents in terms of compensatory picks. If the Falcons were not going to be contenders this season, then they almost had to deal Bates for the most they could get for him. And while the 3-6 Falcons are still in the race in the lowly NFC South, they had to ask themselves: Is this team really going to make a run in 2026?

“It seems they answered that question honestly.”

The Falcons did answer that question honestly. This is a roster littered with problem areas, including at the most important position in the sport. Michael Penix Jr. has flashed at times throughout the season but has been nowhere near consistent enough — which is why the team is 3-4 with him as the starting quarterback since he returned from a torn ACL in Week 3.

As far as the return, this is about the most anybody could have expected for a near-30-year-old safety who’s playing on the final year of his contract — and Walder makes an excellent point about the compensatory picks. With the Falcons set to have so much cap space next offseason, they probably wouldn’t have gotten anything in return for Bates because of how the compensatory pick formula works. That added even more incentive to deal him now, especially if they had a hunch they weren’t going to re-sign him.

Even without Bates, the Falcons still have a decent chance of winning the crappy NFC South, and now they’re set up with two more future draft picks that will surely help them when they hope to be much more competitive. This really was a no-brainer for Atlanta on all fronts — a B+ might actually be selling them short. There’s nothing not to like about this trade, other than the fact that we won’t get to see Bates — the defense’s best player over the last four seasons — in a Falcons uniform anymore.