ESPN hits Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa with a harsh prediction as free agency approaches

The Tua Tagovailoa era with the Miami Dolphins appears to be nearing its end, with the team expected to try to move on from him this offseason via trade or a release. NFL insider Jeff Darlington all but confirmed a forthcoming split last week.

Given Tua's high salary, finding a trade partner doesn't seem to be likely, so a release seems like the most likely option. With free agency set to begin on March 11, the Dolphins could make public their plans to part ways with the number five pick in the 2020 NFL Draft soon.

So, what would 2026 potentially hold for Tua if he is released? ESPN's Bill Barnwell evaluated the tiers of free agent quarterbacks for 2026, and he has Tua in the highest tier of potential quarterbacks to come available — Tier 3: capable starters — along with Daniel Jones.

However, he doesn't see Tua getting much from a new team. In fact, he projects Tua to get the veteran minimum from someone.

ESPN's Bill Barnwell predicts Tua Tagovailoa will earn the veteran's minimum in 2026

This is what Barnwell had to say about Tagovailoa:

"Tagovailoa's tenure with the Dolphins is likely to come to an end, with Miami paying Tagovailoa $52 million in cash to play somewhere else in 2026. He has his issues, including inconsistent arm strength, an inability to create out of structure and a worrisome track record of concussions, but he's also two years removed from leading the league in passing yards and one from leading it in completion percentage. As the point guard in a short-to-intermediate passing game, Tagovailoa's accuracy helps play him up into competent starter territory.

"Tagovailoa with an upper-middle-class QB contract was a problem. Tagovailoa at the veterans minimum -- which is what a new team would likely pay him in 2026 -- could turn out to be a very useful contributor in the right scheme. It's also incumbent on Tagovailoa to pick the right landing spot to rebuild his value in advance of potentially landing a starting job in a more advantageous situation in 2027. Could he be the quarterback for the Chiefs in September before Patrick Mahomes returns from his knee injury?"

Tagovailoa will obviously see his annual salary fall off a cliff from what Chris Grier ponied up for him in 2024. However, I have a hard to seeing how someone won't offer him something above the veteran minimum to secure his services as a top-level backup for 2026.

Tagovailoa is two years removed from coming off a Pro Bowl season where he led the NFL in passing yardage with 4624. In the right system, particularly one that involves a precise, timing-based passing attack, he would have substantial value as a top-tier insurance policy. And in a league that often showcases poor backup play, having a good insurance policy is important.

Tua's place in the NFL pantheon is about to change in a major way, but I don't think we'll quite see him fall to the veteran's minimum at this juncture. He'll still have a market above that point.