ESPN Leans into Obvious for Atlanta Falcons 'X-Factor' in 2025

The Atlanta Falcons made a host of changes in the offseason, including the most important position in sports and overhauling an underachieving defense.

With so many important new faces on both sides of the ball, it’s easy to ask questions about who the “X-Factor” could be for this team. Is it new defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich? The widest variance of success should be on the offensive side of the ball, where the Falcons were 28th in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average).

Could oft-injured linebacker Troy Andersen be a wildcard if he’s healthy? How about first-round pass rushers Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr.? There’s certainly an unknown there, coupled with a talented high ceiling. The definition of an X-Factor.

Instead, ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder chose the obvious: Michael Penix Jr.  

“He was solid in his three starts (in five overall games) last season, with a 51.0 QBR that was almost in line with Kirk Cousins' efficiency as a starter,” Walder wrote on ESPN. “That's a tiny sample, however, so we should think of Penix as mostly an unknown. The range of outcomes for the Falcons is vast, and it hinges more on Penix's potential."

Penix will be looked to by the Falcons to carry the torch in 2025, despite only starting for three games last year. The second-year quarterback was named the team’s starter after the precipitous drop from Kirk Cousins in the back half of the 2024 season.

Penix was named the starter for the rest of the season prior to Week 17’s matchup vs. the New York Giants. Expectations for the former eighth-overall pick are very high despite his clear lack of starting experience. In those three appearances, Penix showed enough to lead the Falcons’ staff to name him the starter this year. 

​​“[Penix] gave me a lot of confidence regardless of anything,” wide receiver Drake London said about his quarterback earlier this offseason. “He’s a gamer. So, I know when he’s out there, he’s going to make the right choices and the right plays.”

The Falcons are hoping that Penix isn't a huge variable in the success equation in 2025. They expect him to be a constant. The infrastructure that surrounds Penix on offense should help to bring out the obvious talent he flashed last season.

The Falcons' defense? That's the real X-Factor.