ESPN Likes Packers as ‘Trendy’ Super Bowl Pick

The Green Bay Packers are trendy picks to win this year’s Super Bowl. Thanks to the soaring late-season play of Jordan Love, there’s a legitimate reason for the hype, but how often does that hype become reality?

ESPN.com’s Bill Barnwell took a deep dive into “trendy” Super Bowl picks to see how often those sexy preseason teams live up to expectations.

First, what is a trendy team?

1. It has to be a “new, fun selection” as a team that hasn’t made a deep playoff run in the recent past. The Packers reached NFC Championship Games in 2019 and 2020 but most of those players – including the quarterback – have been replaced.

2. It beat last year’s expectations by a “considerable” amount. The Packers’ over/under win total for 2023 was 7.5, so the Packers weren’t exactly leaps-and-bounds better by going 9-8. However, they did win six of their final eight to get into the playoffs.

3. It reached the playoffs and made some noise. The Packers obviously did that by demolishing the Dallas Cowboys and pushing the San Francisco 49ers to the brink.

4. It has a young quarterback who impressed. As Barnwell said, “it doesn’t feel like a trendy pick” with an established quarterback.

Based on those criteria, Barnwell picked three “sexy Super Bowl picks” for the upcoming season: the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Packers.

Houston was an easy choice. After seasons of 4-12 in 2020, 4-13 in 2021 and 3-13-1 in 2022, rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans led the Texans to a 10-7 record and a blowout victory over the Browns in the playoffs.

Detroit was an easy pick, too, though Jared Goff certainly could be called an established quarterback. The Lions went 3-13-1 in 2021 before rising to 9-8 in 2022 – a season capped by finishing off the Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay – and exploding to 12-5 and a trip to the NFC Championship Game last season.

“The Lions have a young roster, and they also made meaningful offseason additions to try to fix their obvious weaknesses in the secondary,” Barnwell wrote. “Having exceeded expectations in back-to-back seasons and coming within a couple bounces of advancing to the Super Bowl, you don't need to do much imagining to envision a Detroit championship in 2024.”

Last but not least, it’s the Packers.

Now, what about that history?

From 2011 through 2023, Barnwell pinpointed 20 teams that were sexy Super Bowl picks. Only two won the Super Bowl, though those teams typically had strong seasons. In some cases, dynasties like the Patriots and the current Chiefs got in the way.

Other times, those teams face-planted. One team that failed to live up to the hype was last year’s Jacksonville Jaguars. In 2022, they made noise in the playoffs behind young quarterback Trevor Lawrence. However, after an 8-3 start, the Jags went 1-5 down the stretch to miss the playoffs.

Looking ahead, Barnwell found fewer flaws with the Packers than he did with the Lions and Texans.

Detroit won 12 games with a scoring differential akin to a 10-win team.

Houston has a lot of young stars but an old core and had some good fortune on turnovers.

Speaking of turnovers – which Barnwell did not when talking about the Packers – they were even in turnovers and had the second-fewest interceptions. So, there’s some considerable upside if Love tightens up his game and new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley can make his mark.

“There’s less to worry about on Green Bay’s résumé in terms of sustainability,” Barnwell said of the team that was the youngest in the NFL last season and could be again this year.

Immediately after the Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl, sportsbooks posted odds for this year’s Super Bowl. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Green Bay opened at +2500. Now, it is +1900.

“I’m optimistic about Green Bay this season and see it as a Super Bowl contender, but it would be getting much more in the way of Super Bowl hype if it had finished 11-6 instead,” Barnwell said.