ESPN model delivers bad news for 2023 Giants

Coming off their first playoff win since 2011, the Giants hope to run it back with better results in 2023. But one NFL expert doesn't think they’ve done enough yet in the offseason, and he may be right.

According to projections by ESPN's Mike Clay, New York will fall short of its 9-7-1 season record from 2022 and finish third in the NFC East. (For the record, he projects 7.6 wins for the Giants.) In 2023, the Giants will play the AFC East and NFC West—no easy task—and one reason Clay's win projection makes sense before the NFL Draft.

According to Clay’s data, the Giants should be underdogs in 10 matchups, favored to win six and even against the Raiders. Within the NFC East, New York is only favored against Washington (twice). 

From a roster perspective, Clay is more optimistic about the team’s offense than defense, but his projections don't have either unit cracking the league’s top 10 in 2023. He expects QB Daniel Jones to lead the league’s 18th-ranked offense with numbers similar to 2022 but believes RB Saquon Barkley—if he settles a contract dispute and returns to the team—will finish next season as a top-five back but with slightly fewer yards than 2022, when he had 1,312.

The Giants have done little in the offseason so far to upgrade the receiver position after passing for the league's seventh-fewest yards last year. Per Clay's model, Giants receivers will finish 2023 as the league's eighth-worst unit and without a receiver catching more than four touchdown passes. 

That’s hard to imagine in such a pass-heavy league, but New York hasn’t had a player finish with double-digit TD catches since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2016. In 2023, tight end Darren Waller—acquired in a trade with the Raiders—projects to be the team’s leading receiver with seven scores and 861 yards.

Clay is less optimistic about Big Blue’s defense in 2023. He’s bullish on the team’s interior line, projecting it for 13 sacks, but doesn’t expect the rest of the defense will perform as well. He projects the Giants to have the NFL’s sixth-worst defense in 2023, with the linebacker, edge rush and secondary positions all finishing as bottom-10 units.

Giants fans won’t like any of these numbers, but New York is in a tough spot.

The Giants gave Jones a huge extension and probably will give Barkley more money, too. New York can't afford to lose either, but signing them could keep the team from adding more talent elsewhere.