ESPN projection model pumps brakes on Lions hype

The Lions are riding high after finishing the 2022 season on an 8-2 run and addressing their biggest weaknesses in free agency.

But analyst Mike Clay's 2023 NFL Projection Guide puts the Lions in a less-than-flattering light. Clay's model projects the Lions for 8.3 wins, good for 17th in the NFL. That would be a massive disappointment for Lions fans who expect a leap from last season's nine wins as well as the team's first playoff appearance since the 2015 season.

The model gives the Lions less than a 50% chance of beating Dallas, New Orleans, Denver and Minnesota. It also gives Detroit under a 50 percent chance to win at Chicago, the worst team in the league last season.

Aaron Rodgers appears to be heading out of Green Bay, but the model only gives Detroit a 50 percent chance of beating the Packers (presumably led by Jordan Love) on the road.

The projections are also down on many Lions position groups. The model uses a 1-4 scale and has little faith in Jared Goff and the quarterback room (1.8 grade). Detroit's tight ends group earned a 0.4 grade. The offensive line, meanwhile, received a 3.8 grade.

In 2022, Goff tossed 29 touchdowns and seven picks. In 2023, per Clay's model, he is projected for 25 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

Overall, the model ranked the Lions' offense 15th, which would be a massive step back from last season. In 2022, Detroit ranked fourth in the league with 380.4 yards per game and averaged 26.6 points, fifth in the NFL.

Last year the Lions ranked last in defense, and the projection expects modest improvement to 25^th in the league. The cornerback room, which added Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency, received a grade of 2. The linebacker group received a score of 0.6.

The model projects middling performances from the rest of the division, with Minnesota projected for nine wins, Green Bay 8.1 and Chicago 8. 

For Lions fans expecting big things in 2023, this isn't good news.