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ESPN's Computer Model Predicts Winner Of Chiefs vs. Bills

Originally posted on The Spun | By Tzvi Machlin | Last updated Nov 1, 2025 4:09 PM ET

This Sunday the NFL slate will include the renewal of one of the most intense non-division rivalries in the league as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Buffalo Bills.

The Chiefs and Bills have faced off nine times since 2020, five times in the regular season and four times in the playoffs. And while the Bills have dominated the Chiefs in the regular season to the tune of 4-1 since then, the Chiefs are 4-0 against the Bills in playoff meetings.

That being said, both teams can make big progress towards keeping the other from getting a top seed in the AFC with a win. The Chiefs are 5-3 while the Bills are 5-2, at home and have already had their bye.

Throwback to some of our battles against the Bills ⏮️ pic.twitter.com/312hFDk5LN
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) October 31, 2025

Ahead of the game, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) computer model has released its prediction for the game.

ESPN's FPI believes this will be a close one.

The computer model gives the Chiefs the edge with a 57.0-percent chance of beating the Bills on Sunday.

Despite being the home team, the Bills are not necessarily favored to win. ESPN BET has the line at Chiefs -1.5, which indicates pretty strongly that the Chiefs would be favored even more heavily on neutral ground.

KANSAS CITY, MO - OCTOBER 16: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) hug after an NFL game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs on October 16, 2022 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Icon Sportswire/Getty Images

But as we said earlier, the Bills have had the Chiefs' number in the regular season, winning their last four regular season meetings.

As with so many of their recent meetings this game should be close, it should be heated and it should be good.

The game will be played at 4:25 p.m. ET and will air nationally on CBS.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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