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ESPN's Computer Predicts Super Bowl Winner After Week 2

Originally posted on The Spun | By Andrew Gould | Last updated Sep 16, 2025 12:47 PM ET

The NFL title picture has shifted just two weeks into the 2025 season.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) ascribes each team's chances of winning the Super Bowl. Three teams have a double-digit probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, and none of them played for the championship earlier this year.

The Buffalo Bills top ESPN's odds with a 14.2 percent chance of securing their first Super Bowl title in franchise history. They're narrowly ahead of the Baltimore Ravens (13.6), and the Green Bay Packers (10.6) have jumped ahead of the Philadelphia Eagles (8.3) as the NFC's team to beat.

The Los Angeles Chargers are notably fifth at 7.3 percent following a 2-0 start. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs have dipped to 3.3 percent after back-to-back losses.

Is this finally Buffalo's year?

ORCHARD PARK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 17: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Highmark Stadium on November 17, 2024 in Orchard Park, New York. The Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21. (Photo by Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images)Lauren Leigh Bacho/Getty Images

The Bills have made six straight postseasons with double-digit victories, but they haven't won the AFC since losing four consecutive Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Perhaps this is the year Buffalo gets over the hump.

Buffalo began the season with an improbable 41-40 comeback win over Baltimore, scoring 16 unanswered points late in the fourth quarter. The Bills had a much easier time dispatching the New York Jets in a 30-10 blowout last Sunday.

The Bills lead the NFL with 900 total yards through two games. They're eighth in total defense but trail the Ravens and Lions in ESPN's FPI.

So why do those same ESPN metrics favor the Bills to go the distance? Probably because they have the cleanest path to the postseason.

ESPN gives Buffalo an astonishing 96 percent chance of making the playoffs and 88.6 percent probability of collecting its sixth straight AFC East title. The Jets and Miami Dolphins are 0-2, and the New England Patriots are 1-1 after defeating Miami.

The Bills also lead the pack with a 45.3 percent chance of returning to the AFC Championship Game and 25.6 percent odds of reaching the Super Bowl. That dramatic Week 1 win could help secure home-field advantage in a potential postseason rematch against the Ravens, who rebounded with a dominant Week 2 win over the Cleveland Browns.

A favorable schedule also helps Buffalo's cause. The Bills can tighten their grip over the division with a Week 3 win over the Dolphins this Thursday night.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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