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ESPN’s Computer Predicts Winner For Sunday’s Colts vs. Chiefs Game

Originally posted on The Spun | By Chris Rosvoglou | Last updated Nov 21, 2025 11:38 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) are facing a must-win scenario this Sunday when they host the Indianapolis Colts (8-2).

Despite all the hype surrounding the Chiefs this season, they've been unable to come up big when it matters most. Andy Reid's squad has fallen short to playoff-caliber opponents in the Buffalo Bills, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles.

If the Chiefs want to get back to the playoffs, they'll need to take care of business against the Colts. That won't be easy considering Jonathan Taylor has been a one-man show this season. He already has 1,139 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 189 carries.

Aug 22, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) talks with head coach Andy Reid after a play against the Chicago Bears during the first half of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Luckily for the Chiefs, analytics appear to be on their side.

ESPN's Football Power Index has the Chiefs coming out on top this Sunday:

Chiefs, 61.2 percent chance to win
Colts, 38.4 percent chance to win

For those wondering, the FPI uses past results, remaining schedule and daily projections to determine a team's outlook.

"The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season," ESPN writes. "FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

Sense of urgency.

Earlier this week, Travis Kelce said the Chiefs need to have a bigger sense of urgency moving forward.

“There needs to be a sense of urgency to get that s— done and to be proficient with how you’re getting it done,” Kelce said, via Kansas City Chiefs on SI. “And I got a lot of faith in the guys in this building. I know I’m gonna go to war for them.”

We'll see if the Chiefs come out with urgency against the Colts. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET.

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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