Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrates with head coach Sean McDermott and Matt Prater Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN's flawed computer model still thinks Ravens are better than Bills

Originally posted on Buffalo Bills on SI
By Richie Whitt | Last updated Sep 9, 2025 6:07 PM ET

Along with movies like The Matrix and Terminator, this is why some of us are leery about AI.

Despite last Sunday night's epic showdown in which the Buffalo Bills rallied to beat the Ravens, ESPN's Football Power Index computer model still gives Baltimore a better statistical chance than Buffalo to win Super Bowl LX.

Not sure how to explain that one. Maybe ESPN's computer doesn't get NBC? The human beings who actually watched the game disagree, as the Bills' Super Bowl odds improved at betting sites in the wake of the signature victory.

Down 40-25 late in the fourth quarter, Josh Allen and the Bills produced a miraculous comeback and won, 41-40, on newly signed kicker Matt Prater's 32-yard field goal on the final play. It's not only the early leader for NFL Game of the Year, the result will resonate all season in terms of standings and AFC home-field sites in the playoffs.

Could Allen and Baltimore's Lamar Jackson meet again in the postseason? Absolutely. But with Buffalo now owning the head-to-head tiebreaker, being favored in its remaining 16 games and playing in a weak AFC East in which the other teams are 0-1, it's difficult to fathom how the Ravens still have a better chance of being crowned champions Feb. 8 in Santa Clara.

Much less a decidedly better chance. According to the ESPN model's Tuesday morning update, the Ravens now have a 15.0 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Bills, who beat them less than 48 hours ago, are second-best at only 10.8 percent. The defending champion Philadelphia Eagles are the only other team greater than 10 percent.

Further computer confusion, ESPN’s FPI also gives the Bills better odds of making the playoffs (90.2 percent) than Baltimore (83.2 percent).

yard field goal against the Los Angeles Rams / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images