ESPN's FPI Index Projects 49ers to Win NFC West

Things just might break the 49ers' way this season.

They may not have the best roster in the NFC West, but they are the favorite to win the division according to ESPN's FPI Index.

"FPI narrowly has the Rams as the best team in the NFC West," writes ESPN's Seth Walder. "But the favorite to win the division? That would (very narrowly) be the 49ers, with a 36% shot over the Rams' 34%.

"Why the discrepancy? Strength of schedule. No team enters 2025 with an easier slate than the 49ers, who not only get to face the NFC South and AFC South like the rest of their division, but also the Giants, Browns and Bears due to finishing last in the division in 2024. In comparison, the Rams must face the Eagles, Ravens and Lions as part of their first-place schedule.

"That is enough to give San Francisco the edge over Los Angeles in the projections. It also indicates the FPI's belief in the 49ers bouncing back after a brutally disappointing 6-11 campaign. A big part of that faith is the betting market believing that the 49ers were hampered by injuries to key players last season -- including wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, running back Christian McCaffrey and offensive lineman Trent Williams -- and that they should be dangerous if healthy."

The 49ers indeed get to face the Giants, the Browns and the Bears while the Rams have to face the Eagles, the Ravens and the Lions. But the Rams played the Lions, the Eagles and the Bills last season and still won the division. That's because they were 4-2 against the NFC West, and one of their losses came in Week 18 when they rested their starters. Meanwhile, the 49ers were 1-5 against the NFC West.

Now, it seems unlikely that Brandon Aiyuk will return to form before 2026, and Christian McCaffrey might not have any gas left in the tank -- he averaged just 4.0 yards per carry last season. In addition, their defense could start up to six rookies.

I'd pick the Rams to win the division, but that's just me.