ESPN’s FPI Predicts Outcome of Chiefs’ Game This Weekend

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Spencer Ostrow | Last updated Jan 14, 2025 12:28 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs are gearing up for another run at the Super Bowl, looking to become the first team in NFL history to win three straight.

After a 15-2 regular season, enough to clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they'll begin their playoff journey on Saturday against the No. 4 seed Houston Texans.

For many Chiefs starters, this will be the first game action since Christmas Day. Head coach Andy Reid wisely gave key players like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce some rest in Week 18 after previously securing the No. 1 seed and a bye in the first round.

As the Divisional Round approaches, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) made predictions for each matchup.

For the Chiefs-Texans game in Kansas City, the FPI gives the Chiefs a 62.7% chance to win and advance to their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game.

According to ESPN BET, the Chiefs are 7.5-point favorites entering the game. They will rely on their strong defense, which has been a key strength over the past two seasons.

The defense ranked fourth in the NFL during the regular season, allowing just 19.2 points per game while also finishing in the top ten for yards allowed (320.6 per game).

On offense, Mahomes has had a quiet year by his standards. He wasn’t named to the NFL AP All-Pro team, and his offense failed to score more than 30 points in any game this season. In fact, the last time a team finished with 13 wins and didn’t score over 30 points was all the way back in 1925, when the Frankford Yellow Jackets did it (CBS Sports).

Still, Mahomes is a two-time MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion, and the Texans know they’ll need to bring everything they have to contain him.

In Week 16, Houston came close but fell short in a 27-19 loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.

Saturday's rematch is scheduled to kick off at 4:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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