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ESPN's FPI Reveals Overwhelming Favorite to Win the Super Bowl Ahead of Wild-Card Round

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Zachary Neel | Last updated Jan 6, 2025 10:47 AM ET

The wild-card round of the NFL playoff is officially set, and with the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs securing the highly-coveted first-round byes, the other 12 teams in the postseason now know who they will be squaring off against this coming weekend.

We are getting set to see some elite first-round matchups, with high-profile games like the Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams, and Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos.

While the playoff field will be cut in half in a matter of days, there seems to be a good idea of who will be left standing when all is said and done, and which team actually has a chance to hoist that Lombardi Trophy at the end of the year.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index, there's actually an overwhelming favorite to see the confetti rain down in February.

The Detroit Lions are far-and-away the top pick, per the FPI, with a 26.4% chance to win the Super Bowl. Here's who ESPN thinks are the most likley victors:

Detroit Lions: 26.4%
Baltimore Ravens: 14.7%
Kansas City Chiefs: 11.1%
Buffalo Bills: 9.7%
Philadelphia Eagles: 8.3%

For context, the index "measures a team's true strength on net points scale," which determines its expected point margin vs. an average opponent on a neutral field. While the playoffs are anything but that, it can serve as a usual measure of success over the 17-game regular season sample size.

After going 15-2 in the regular season and securing the first-round bye, it feels as if the Lions are on a magical run that would be disappointing if it stopped anywhere short of a Super Bowl appearance. With the sheer number of crucial injuries that they've suffered this season, many think that Jared Goff and the Lions are on a run of destiny, and with how well they continue to play, a trophy could very well be in their future.

Obviously, ESPN's FPI agrees. Detroit will sit idle this week, and play either the Minnesota Vikings or Los Angeles Rams in the second week of the playoffs.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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