Evaluating True Ceiling for Raiders in 2026

A multitude of things have to go Las Vegas' way this season, but if the ball bounces in its favor consistently, what is this team's ceiling?

AFC West: Second Place

Just to clarify, this is not a prediction or even suggesting that this is a realistic outcome. A grocery list of things has to fall in the Raiders' favor for this to transpire, especially in potentially the best-quarterbacked division in the NFL.

This is also contingent on how well Mendoza picks up the offense and develops as a passer against NFL defenses. Assuming Kirk Cousins starts the season, if the 37-year-old quarterback can be competent, the pieces are in place for a good enough offense in the early stretch of the season.

Klint Kubiak schemed up a Sam Darnold-led offense to a Super Bowl-winning season in 2025. Obviously, Cousins is not as talented or good as Darnold, but that offense had one elite weapon in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a very good running back in Kenneth Walker III.

Las Vegas' offense does not possess a wide receiver threat on the outside, but tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty are more than good enough to support a quarterback. With this offensive scheme and what should be a vastly improved defense, the Raiders' absolute ceiling in the AFC West next season is a second-place finish.

Again, this would require an outlier season by a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach, but if one or two teams in this division fall off a bit, Las Vegas could take advantage.

Overall Record: 10-7

Finishing with a 10-7 record would be good enough to finish second in the AFC West if we saw a complete meltdown from multiple divisional rivals. Separating the division finish, compiling 10 wins is certainly in the cards for the Raiders.

For one, they play a last-place schedule that features the AFC East and the NFC South. Some of their opponents include the Browns, Cardinals, Jets, Dolphins, Titans, and Saints. Those are winnable games for Las Vegas, and if it wins the majority of them while picking up a few upset victories, it's plausible to win double-digit games for the first time since 2021.

Playoff Positioning: Wildcard (Six Seed)

On average, four new teams qualify for the playoffs each season, which is a byproduct of playoff teams from the previous season falling off a cliff. That being said, teams that could take a major step back in the AFC next season include the Patriots, Jaguars, Broncos, and Steelers.

If you told me multiple teams from that list missed the playoffs, it would not surprise me in the slightest. Las Vegas possesses the talent and coaching staff to take advantage and sneak into one of the final two wildcard spots. Based on what has transpired this offseason, I would predict that the Raiders will be challenging for a playoff spot in the final weeks of the regular season.