Evergreen NFL Futures Strategy: Over Early, Under Late

Few people live to obsess over Major League Baseball 24/7 the way I do — yet nothing gets me more amped in late May than seeing those first NFL futures hit the board as the draft dust settles.

Since I'm just getting to know everyone here at Athlon (Hi!), I want to make sure to drop all my favorite strategic nuggets in these evergreen pieces. Refining your macro strategy can boost market edge with lasting effects. As these adjustments become familiar, muscle memory develops and bam! Good habits are formed.

Betting futures comes down to more than simply comparing projections to posted lines — there's an element of psychology baked in. And when "they" say the public loves the over, it's not an exaggeration whatsoever.

What I mean to say is the majority of lines on player props only move in one direction (up) — even if most of those bets will eventually cash to the under due to injuries, in addition to poor performance. So by that thinking, the best time to buy in on anticipated value is now. 

As squares and casuals pile in at the 11th hour in the face of negative CLV, a ton of these yardage plays will move by +10%, while also getting more expensive — making them completely untenable to sharps.

Conversely, the opposite's also true. Once all the fantasy footballers start betting after their drafts and market helium's fully infused right before opening kickoff, we leap into action. How? By swooping in to bet the under on everyone perceived to be overvalued or injury prone. Ha!

So when it comes to betting player futures (NFL in particular), I subscribe to a simple adage: over early, under late.

I do somewhat hate putting negative injury aura into the universe but a fact's a fact. And one thing we know about professional football is it's as hard-hitting and therefore dangerous as any sport imaginable. Now, I don't have the math on-hand but just by sheer rules of attrition, my guess is the vast majority of all overs fail. Once a player misses a game or two, the necessary per game average can easily vault out of reach. 

Anyway, that's another story for a different day that we'll pick back up on as we approach the dog days of summer. In the meantime, focus on which overs are too low that could move higher as interest heightens.