Every possible playoff scenario for the Packers ahead of week 18

The 2023 season has been a roller coaster for the Green Bay Packers, but they are in position to make the playoffs without depending on other teams in week 18. If the Packers beat the Chicago Bears on Sunday, they secure a postseason berth.

Green Bay could even sneak into the playoffs with a loss, but that would depend on a combination of other games. The Minnesota Vikings would have to lose to the Detroit Lions, and the Arizona Cardinals would have to pull an upset against the Seattle Seahawks.

Moreover, one of these two results would have to happen: either a New Orleans Saints loss to the Atlanta Falcons, or a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss to the Carolina Panthers.

From the three NFC wild card spots, two are defined. One goes to the loser of the NFC East between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles — it's going to be the Eagles, unless the Cowboys lose to the Washington Commanders and the Eagles beat the New York Giants. The second one goes to the Los Angeles Rams, who clinched a playoff berth in week 17.

The third wild card spot is the major factor in contention in week 18. The Packers win if they beat the Bears, as explained above. If they lose, it opens the door for these teams, in order: Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, and Minnesota Vikings.

The Saints can also win the NFC South with a win and a Bucs loss, and that's why they have bigger playoff chances than the Seahawks. The Atlanta Falcons can't enter the playoffs as a wild card team, but still can win the division.

The Bucs have a remote chance of getting in as a wild card team. But they would have to tie a game against the Panthers, plus Falcons, Packers and Seahawks losses.

Chances of making the playoffs:

NFC playoff battle

Data: The New York Times playoff tool

"This is exactly the situation we've been working for," Packers quarterback Jordan Love said after the 33-10 win in Minnesota. "All offseason, all through training camp, to get ready to put ourselves in position to make the playoffs. We are controlling our destiny right now, so we're excited to handle our business next week."

The Packers have a 100% chance of making the playoffs with a win over the Chicago Bears, a similar situation they faced last year against the Detroit Lions. However, the main difference is that a loss last year meant a guaranteed elimination — and that's what ended up happening. This year, according to the New York Times playoff tool, there would still be a 25% chance even with a loss.

Green Bay can even get to the sixth seed. For that to happen, they need to beat the Bears, and root for the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Los Angeles Rams.

On the other side

If the Packers clinch a playoff berth, there are three possible contenders on their way. The most likely path indicates a game against the Dallas Cowboys, a case in which the Packer would face their former head coach Mike McCarthy. If the Cowboys lose and the Eagles win, a game in Philadelphia would be on the way.

If both the Cowboys and Eagles lose, it opens the door for the Detroit Lions to be the second seed and face the NFC North rival in the wild card round.

If the Rams lose to the 49ers and the Packers get the sixth seed, they would face the third seed — most likely, the Lions.

In the divisional round, the Packers would probably have to face the 49ers — unless they get the sixth seed, win, and the Rams beat their opponent as the seventh seed.

The Packers face the Bears at 3:25pm CT at Lambeau Field on Sunday. It's truly a season-defining game, and a rare opportunity to be in the postseason with such a young team.